Gasoline: The price limit reduction is about to be realized, and the market has more wait-and-see sentiment

Gasoline: the price limit is about to be reduced, and there is more wait-and-see mood in the market.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231106	America	WTI	80.82	0.31
20231106	The United Kingdom	Brent	85.18	0.29

 

Gasoline price index

On November 7, China's gasoline price index fell by 0.11%, or 9.33%, to 8795.57, while China's gasoline price index increased by 2.55%, or 0.03%, to 9169.77. The 9-month gasoline index fell, while the 9-month gasoline index rose, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 374.19.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, China's gasoline wholesale part fluctuates in a narrow range, with gasoline in North China, southwest and northeast China reduced by 30-100 yuan / ton, East China gasoline and northeast China gasoline prices reduced by 50 yuan / ton, and the rest of the region mainly engaged in wholesale prices in multiple regions. The ex-factory price of georefining declined slightly, with gasoline prices in Central China, Southwest China and East China reduced by 20-50 yuan per ton. Gasoline prices in other regions remain relatively stable. At present, the turnover in China's gasoline market is weak, the price limit of refined oil is coming down and realized, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, operators are cautious in entering the market, traders are mainly eliminating warehouses, demand follow-up is slow, and the operation of hidden benefits in refineries is not reduced.

November 7 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 11.6	Price 11.7	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8150-9600	8180-9600	30/0
	95#	8350-10000	8380-10000	30/0
South China	92#	8600-9680	8600-9680	0/0
	95#	8850-9980	8850-9980	0/0
Central China	92#	8500-8950	8500-8950	0/0
	95#	8650-9450	8650-9450	0/0
East China region	92#	8500-9500	8450-9500	-50/0
	95#	8650-9800	8650-9800	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8330-10000	8330-10000	0/0
	95#	8530-10450	8530-10450	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8700-9200	8700-9200	0/0
	95#	8950-9600	8950-9600	0/100
Northeast China	92#	8300-9100	8350-9100	50/0
	95#	8630-10000	8580-10000	-50/0

 

November 7 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 11.6	Price 11.7	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8000-8300	8000-8300	0/0
	95#	8160-8450	8160-8450	0/0
North China region	92#	8100-8130	8100-8130	0/0
	95#	8150-8280	8150-8280	0/0
Central China	92#	8460-8460	8430-8430	-30/-30
	95#	8660-8660	8630-8630	-30/-30
East China region	92#	8150-8250	8130-8250	-20/0
	95#	8270-8420	8250-8420	-20/0
Northwestern region	92#	8050-8250	8050-8250	0/0
	95#	8200-8450	8200-8450	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8300-8400	8300-8400	0/0
	95#	8600-8600	8600-8600	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8700-8700	8650-8650	-50/-50
	95#	8850-8850	8800-8800	-50/-50

 

Future forecast

In terms of international crude oil, the Saudi production cut still supports the supply side of crude oil, but the overall performance of the global economy is tired and bearish. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the measures taken by refineries to reduce processing load and reduce production on the supply side have a certain support for oil prices, but it is still difficult to improve the demand side. For the time being, there are no good signs of cliff cooling in most areas of the north, and the impact of cold wave increases residents' travel restrictions. Coupled with the gradual weakening of supply-side news support, the upward pressure on the gasoline market increases. In addition, a new round of price limit is expected to be lowered, and the news is a negative guide. Taken together, China's gasoline market is expected to decline slightly in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on October 24, 2023, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has been reduced by 70 yuan per ton (standard, the same below). After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be November 7.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10345	9285
Tianjin	10310	9250
Hebei Province	10310	9250
Shanxi province	10380	9305
Liaoning province	10310	9250
Jilin Province	10310	9250
Heilongjiang province	10310	9250
Shanghai	10325	9255
Jiangsu Province	10365	9290
Zhejiang Province	10365	9305
Anhui province	10360	9300
Fujian Province	10385	9315
Jiangxi province	10365	9310
Shandong province	10320	9260
Hubei province	10335	9275
Hunan Province	10375	9335
Henan province	10330	9270
Hainan province	10455	9385
Chongqing	10525	9460
Guangdong province	10390	9320
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10455	9385
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10315	9250
Gansu province	10295	9270
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10090	9145
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10325	9265
Chengdu city	10530	9485
Guiyang city	10490	9410
Kunming City	10520	9440
Xi'an city	10295	9260
Xining City	10275	9295

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9580 yuan and 8520 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.