Methanol: Futures continued to rise, spot prices were stable and rising

On November 6th, the methanol market price index was 2261.75, up 3.95 from yesterday, up 0.17% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 3:

China CFR 284-285 US dollars / ton, up 6 US dollars / ton

European FOB 348.25-349.25 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 103-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 349-350 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2190-2220 (10), North Route: & nbsp;2060-2130 (0), Lunan: 2360-2380 (0), Henan: 2280-22900 (10), Shanxi: 2220-2235 (40), Port: & nbsp;2445-2455 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 220-300 (10ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 250-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-230 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol futures market continues to rise, the price in the port market is raised along with it, and the recent operation of the olefin plant is stable, and the pick-up volume in the port area is OK, but the Chinese market is dragged down by terminal demand. the market transaction situation has not improved significantly, and some operators in the market still have a wait-and-see mood for the future. Specifically, the market quotation in the main producing areas has been raised narrowly, with today's quotation of 2060-2130 yuan / ton for the north line and 2080-2100 yuan / ton for the south line. The demand performance of the downstream market still maintains the previous state, and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general, but the current cost end support is OK, and the futures market is highly volatile, and the possibility of short-term price reduction in the main producing areas is relatively small. From the perspective of Shandong, the main consumer area, there is still a certain wait-and-see mood among downstream manufacturers, and the market transaction atmosphere is mediocre. At present, southern Shandong is quoted at 2360-2380 yuan / ton, and northern Shandong is quoted at 2340-2360 yuan / ton. We still need to pay attention to tomorrow's bidding. Central China market prices rose narrowly, Henan quoted 2280-2290 yuan / ton, Lianghu quoted 2420-2600 yuan / ton, futures market rose in a narrow range, the mentality of operators has improved, the market bidding is relatively smooth. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in a narrow range today. Spot rigid demand buying and selling. Paper part of the high shipments, arbitrage buying mainly, the basis is stable and slightly weak. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2455-2475, base difference 01pm: 2475, base difference 01b: 81011, base difference: 2470-2485, base difference 01x11, base difference: 2480-2495, base difference 01b, 15pm, 12th transaction: 2490-2500, base difference: 0125bank: 30.

Future forecast: recently, some parts of China are affected by the gas restriction policy in southwest China, and the devices have operations such as parking or negative reduction, but the overall market supply does not change much. at present, the Chinese market still maintains a high position, and the follow-up of the traditional downstream market demand is limited, the market transaction volume is not good, the terminal downstream market demand may be difficult to have bright performance in the short term, and we should pay attention to the operation of the main downstream olefin plant in the later stage. At present, under the support of the cost end, the price reduction in the spot market of methanol may be relatively limited in the short term, coupled with the strong volatility of the futures market, which gives a slight boost to the mentality of operators, but from the perspective of methanol itself, it is still in a weak pattern of supply and demand, and it is expected that short-term methanol market prices will continue to fluctuate within the range, and we need to pay close attention to macro policies and crude oil, coal and natural gas prices in the later stage.