Soda ash prices are stable and declining. Market sentiment is not high (11.02 Soda Ash Weekly Review)

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November 3, 2023, 5:00 PM

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

This week, China's soda ash market has generally declined. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 1,900 - 2,200 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,200 - 2,400 yuan/ton. This week, the plant production of individual soda ash companies has dropped, and the market supply has decreased slightly; The spot price of soda ash has continued to fall, and the follow-up of new orders in the market has not been good. Companies have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the inventory of some soda plants has increased again; Downstream companies remain cautious in purchasing, and the focus of market transactions has been steadily moving downward, and the decline has been rapid. Some manufacturers have not quoted new soda ash orders for the time being. Market participants are mostly bearish on the future outlook, and the market remains weak.

Forecast for next week: Recently, due to factors such as the market and equipment, the start-up of equipment by some manufacturers has declined. The recovery time is still uncertain, and supply may show an increasing trend in the later period; downstream market demand remains stable, but corporate purchasing sentiment is light, and the focus is on waiting and seeing; The soda ash market continues to weaken and prices maintain a downward trend.

2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

areas	specifications	October 26	November 2	rise and fall	previous month
Northeast China	light soda ash	2700	2350	-350	-12.96%
Northeast China	heavy sodium carbonate	2800	2500	-300	-10.71%
in North China	light soda ash	2650	2250	-400	-15.09%
in North China	heavy sodium carbonate	2850	2450	-400	-14.04%
East China	light soda ash	2475	2075	-400	-16.16%
East China	heavy sodium carbonate	2700	2300	-400	-14.81%
central China	light soda ash	2300	1925	-375	-16.30%
central China	heavy sodium carbonate	2525	2200	-325	-12.87%
South China	light soda ash	2550	2175	-375	-14.71%
South China	heavy sodium carbonate	2700	2475	-225	-8.33%
southwestern region	light soda ash	2600	2400	-200	-7.69%
southwestern region	heavy sodium carbonate	2700	2650	-50	-1.85%
northwestern region	light soda ash	2125	1975	-150	-7.06%
northwestern region	heavy sodium carbonate	2200	2175	-25	-1.14%

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of November 2 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 734 yuan/ton, down 348 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 600 yuan/ton, down 291 yuan/ton from the previous week.

production process	October 26	November 2	Weekly ups and downs	rise and fall
combined alkali method	1082	734	-348	-32.16%
ammonia-soda process	891	600	-291	-32.66%

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

This week, the soda ash industry started at 87%, down 2% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 679,000 tons.

Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on November 2, 2023
process	enterprise name	production capacity	device condition
combined alkali method	Fujian Yaolong	40	Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined
	Huainan Debang	60	On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined.
	Tianjin soda plant	80	The company will stop for maintenance on October 20, and the expected recovery time will be at the end of the month.
	Henan Junhua	60	On November 1, the company's equipment will be stopped for maintenance for one day
	Zhongyan Red Sifang	35	On November 1, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance for 2 days
chlor-alkali process	Qinghai Salt Lake	120	On October 27, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined
	Qinghai Fantou	140	On October 28, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined
	Kunlun Jianye	150	On October 28, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 518,000 tons, compared with 451,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 67,000 tons, or 14.86%.