Methanol: Market sentiment has warmed up, methanol period has stopped falling and increased slightly

On November 3, the methanol market price index was 2257.8, up 0.64 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on November 2nd:

China CFR 277-280USD / ton, down US $2 / tonne

European FOB 348.5-349.5 euros / ton, up 3.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 103-105 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2180-2200 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2060-2130 (0), Lunan: 2360-2380 (0), Henan: 2270-2280 (20), Shanxi: 2180-2220 (- 40), Port: & nbsp;2445-2455 (30)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-300 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-230 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market price rose in a narrow range, the futures market stopped falling but rose, and the mentality of the operators improved slightly. The auction transaction in the northwest market was OK. The auction price of methanol in Inner Mongolia Rongxin was quoted at 2060 yuan / ton today. Finally, 2060-2065 yuan / ton, all 4000 tons were traded. Yulin Yankuang methanol was auctioned today to 2060 yuan / ton factory cash exchange, the final 2060-2065 yuan / ton, the quantity of 3000 tons all transactions, short-term market prices in the main producing areas may still maintain a volatile trend. The market quotation in Shandong, the main consumer area, is stable and small. Today, southern Shandong 2360-2380 yuan / ton, maintaining yesterday, northern Shandong 2340-2360 yuan / ton, the lower reaches of the industry is still looking for cautious mood, the rigid demand for replenishment is mainly low, the market transaction atmosphere is slightly cautious. The market quotation in North China is mainly arranged. Today, Hebei quotation is 2280-2380, Shanxi quotation is 2180-2200 yuan / ton, the terminal demand is still in the doldrums, the market transaction atmosphere is not good, and most operators lack confidence in the future. The southwest region moves steadily and slightly, and the gas price has been raised. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the operation of the air head device in the field. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures fluctuated upwards after consolidation. The spot transaction is limited. Paper shipments increase every high, arbitrage is the main, the basis is weak. The price difference narrowed during the month, and the overall transaction was active throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price, spot transaction: 2445-2455, base difference 01x 0prime position 5position 11 deal: 2445-2455, base difference 01x 7pm 10position 11 deal: 2450-2460, base difference 01x 15x 11 deal: 2460-2470, base difference 01x 15pm 20x 12: 2465-2480, base difference 01x 30.

The future forecast: the coal price at the cost end has fallen recently, and the cost support for methanol has decreased slightly, but in the later stage, with the market demand for winter storage, the demand side may have a certain positive support, and at present, the futures market has stopped falling but rose. However, the basic performance of methanol itself is still mediocre, some operators in the market still have a certain wait-and-see mood towards the future, and the market turnover is still strong, but in the later stage, with the implementation of the natural gas restriction policy. The operation of some air head devices in the field may be limited, and under the support of reduced supply, market sentiment may improve, but the release of downstream demand needs to be taken into account. At present, with the release of macro benefits, market sentiment has improved, but the fundamentals of methanol are general, and it is expected that short-term methanol market prices will continue to fluctuate in the range. In the later stage, we should pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil, coal and natural gas.