[Ethanol Daily Review]: China's ethanol market trends on November 3

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November 3, 2023, 4:48 PM

On November 3rd, the price index of general-grade ethanol was 6339.25, up from-1.5 on the previous working day.

& nbsp; the price region of China's ethanol market weakens. November 3 hot spots: first, Henan excellent individual quotations continue to be reduced by 50 yuan / ton. Second, the price in East China will be reduced by 50 yuan per ton. Third, the price in Northeast China is stable and the order is delivered. 4. The bidding price of ethyl acetate has been reduced obviously. Fifth, fuel prices are weak. Sixth, the purchasing price of regional georefining is weak.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China are stable, chemical orders are shipped, and shipments to East China are increasing. The prices of some superior factories in Henan are weak and their shipments are weak. Some factories in East China have shut down, but the demand is general, and the quotations of the main factories have been lowered. Fuel prices are weak. The earth refinery is sent to the price weak finishing. Northeast enterprise Jilin market price 6400-6500 yuan / ton, Jilin no water 7100-7300 yuan / ton. The general grade of Heilongjiang market is 6250-6400 yuan / ton, and the Heilongjiang anhydrous market is 7050-7250 yuan / ton. The northeast closing position is about 6650-6750 yuan / ton. The superior enterprises in Central China offer 6750-6800 yuan / ton, and the water-free price is 7450-7700 yuan / ton. The price of ethanol in East China is 6750 yuan / ton. The price of anhydrous ethanol is 7500-7600 yuan / ton, and the general price in southern Jiangsu is 7000-7100 yuan / ton. Cassava ethanol & nbsp;7050-7200 yuan / ton in Guangxi, South China.

& nbsp; unit: yuan / ton

Area	Specifications	Market	2023/11/3	2023/11/2	Rise and fall
South China	Cassava is anhydrous	Guangxi	7850-7950	7850-7950	0/0
	Molasses 95%	Guangxi	-	-	-
	Cassava 95%	Guangxi	7050-7200	7200-7200	-150/0
North China	Superior grade	Hebei	-	-	-
North China	No water	Hebei	7300-7400	7300-7400	0/0
Northeast China	General level	Jilin	6400-6500	6400-6500	0/0
	No water	Jilin	7100-7300	7100-7300	0/0
	General level	Jinzhou	6650-6750	6650-6750	0/0
	General level	Heilongjiang Province	6250-6400	6250-6400	0/0
East China	General level	Anhui Province	-	-	0/0
	No water	Anhui Province	7650-7650	7650-7650	0/0
	No water	Shandong	7500-7550	7500-7550	0/0
	General level	Shandong	6750-6800	6750-6800	0/0
	Superior grade	Shandong	6850-7050	6850-7050	0/0
	Send it to other places without water.	Shandong	7400-7400	7400-7400	0/0
	General level	Northern Jiangsu	6750-6750	6800-6800	-50/-50
	No water	Northern Jiangsu	7500-7600	7550-7650	-50/-50
	General level	Southern Jiangsu	7000-7100	7000-7100	0/0
Central China	Superior grade	Henan	6750-6800	6800-6800	-50/0
Central China	No water	Henan	7450-7700	7450-7700	0/0

Raw materials / by-products and downstream

Unit: yuan / ton, US dollar / ton

Area	Market	Raw materials / by-products	2023/11/3	Remarks
Northeast China	Jilin	Corn	2350-2400
Northeast China	Jilin	DDGS	2350-2450
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	Corn	2298-2310	Less transactions at a low price
Northeast China	Heilongjiang Province	DDGS	2250-2300	High fat
Central China	Henan	Corn	2650-2690
Central China	Henan	DDGS	2300-2350
Thailand		Dried cassava	275-279
Shandong		Ethyl acetate	6350-6390	Acceptance leaves the factory
Jiangsu Province		Ethyl acetate	6450-6550
South China		Ethyl acetate	6550-6650

Future forecast: short-term weak consolidation of China's ethanol market, weak corn prices, negative costs, stable supply in Northeast China, order delivery, decline in start-up in East China, and delivery of goods from Northeast China to arbitrage, increased enthusiasm for purchasing goods from Northeast China. Large factories do not have obvious inventory, but the market bearish mentality is not conducive to the transaction of new orders. In Henan area, the thick source plant has a start-up plan in the middle of the year, and the supply is increased. At present, the chemical arbitrage is closed, and the inventory is likely to be weak. There is a decline in construction in East China, there are not many local sources of goods, some of them consume the sources of goods in Northeast China, the production costs of enterprises are high, the losses are serious, and the price reduction space of local sources is limited. Fuel ethanol market has low price, limited downstream demand and weak price arrangement. The construction of coal-based ethanol increased around the middle of the year, and the price is weak under the limited demand.

Raw material: corn ethanol: the price of Chinese corn is weak with the influence of the quantity, but the price has rebounded slightly recently. At present, the supply of ddgs is increasing, the demand is limited, and the price is weak this week. Cassava dry aspect: enterprise rigid demand procurement, Thailand is willing to raise the price is obvious, cassava dry inventory sales are expected short-term cassava dry price high finishing. The market is low in price and average in quality.

Supply: northeast start: Dongning Hongda shutdown, Baoquanling shutdown, Luobei production, Cofco Zhaodong normal, Wanli installation normal, Hongzhan 4 factories normal, Heilongjiang Shenglong production, Zhongkegreen production, Fuyu Huihai production; Fukang production, Tianyu production, Shuntong production, Dongfeng Huafeng production, Xintianlong normal, Liuniu production. Huadong Huatian production, Guannan shutdown, Jin Changlin downtime, Guohua shutdown, Changxing production, Longhe downtime, Romat production, sul shutdown, Fulaichun shutdown, Maibo Huihui shutdown, MINUSTAH production. Houyuan, Mengzhou, Henan Province, downtime, other normal. Jufeng shuts down. Chifeng Ruiyang production, Zhalantun production, Inner Mongolia Jietainuo plant production. Jilin fuel is normal, Guotou Tieling production. Tianguan Nanyang production. Guotou Jidong production. State Investment Helen production.

Demand: downstream chemical rigid demand procurement. Liquor order purchase.

Logistics: logistics price is stable.

Equipment maintenance table of Chinese ethanol enterprises

Enterprise name	Production capacity (10,000 tons / year)	Maintenance involves production capacity	Maintenance start time	Remarks
Hongzhan (Jixian)	60	60	April fifteenth	Start up on May 6th
Jilin Fukang	50	4	March 28th
Heilongjiang Hexing grain and oil	3	3	Late March
Inner Mongolia Shuntong	12	12	Production on October 8th
Heilongjiang Zhongke Green	10	10	Production on August 30th
Fulaichun, Shandong Province	20	20	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Dongcheng	15	15	Stop the machine
Guannan COVID-19, Lianyungang	5	5	Stop the machine
Jiangsu Haiyan	15	15	Start up in the middle of May
Jiangsu Maibo remittance	8	8	Stop feeding at the beginning of April
Shuyang Guohua	5	5	Resume downtime in mid-August around July 10
Anhui COFCO	75	30	It is expected to shut down in September on April 20th.
Anhui Wuhechun	8	8	Stop the machine
Jilin Xintianlong	30	30	Shut down on May 5, start on the 17th, reduce production on the 21st, full production on July 15th.
Heilongjiang Sheng long	15	15	Shut down on April 27-start on June 5, put in material from July 19 to September 16
Inner Mongolia Liniu	10	10	October production
Hanyong, Mengzhou, Henan Province	30	30	One-line production
Houyuan, Mengzhou, Henan Province	50	50	Open on May 21 and shut down on October 26th
Jilin Dongfeng Hua Grain	10	10	Fire from 17 April to 9 October
National Investment Helen	30	30	April 12-May 24, September 20-September 26	Fuel fuel
Guotou Jidong	30	30	April 3rd	Fuel fuel
Zhenjiang Changxing	10	10	All machines were shut down on May 16, June 5, July 19, August 28.
Jin Changlin in Lianyungang	5	5	Shutdown on May 18, production on August 7, shutdown around August 15.
Hongzhang, ha.	60	30	From 27 May to 20 July, Phase II from September 25 to October 9
Fukang	50	50	Feed from August 10 to August 31
Tianyu	15	15	Stop feeding on July 21 and feed on August 13
Cofco Zhaodong	30	10	Stop feeding on June 5-June 20, July 15 stop fuel production on July 31, feed on August 15
Chifeng Ruiyang	8	8	Shut down on June 10th and feed on July 4th.
Hongzhan Tahiko	30	30	Stop from June 20th to July 5th
Wanli Runda	60	60	Shutdown on July 15th and feeding on July 31st
Lianyungang Longhe River	10	10	July 3 device stop feeding August 21 feeding November 3 shutdown
Jiangsu sul alcohol	12	12	The device was shut down on July 3
Liaoyuan giant peak	50	50	Production stopped on July 4th and August 1st.
Zalantun	10	10	The product will be released around July 6th.
Shandong Yingxuan	20	20	Shut down at the end of June and put in material on July 25.
Jilin fuel	70	70	The two lines will be inspected from 31 July to 20 August.
Guotou Tieling	30	30	The machine was shut down on July 31 for maintenance and put in the material on August 10.
Henan Nanyang Tianguan	30	30	August 15 put into production
Romet.	5	5	August 18 put into production
Fuyu Huihai	5	5	Downtime in mid-August-October 3
China Colleen	10	10	Feeding starts on August 22nd
Guotou Jidong	30	30	Feed in early September
Hongzhan Huannan	30	30	October 08-October 22