PVC: Futures reduced their positions and left the futures price rose. The Ministry of National Security guarded financial security, and the spot market increased slightly.

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November 3, 2023, 4:30 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 3 V2401 contract opening price: 6088, highest price: 6184, lowest price: 6078, position: 798896, settlement price: 6141, yesterday settlement: 6077, up:, daily trading volume: 910746 lots, precipitated capital: 3.452 billion, capital outflow: 139 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 11.2	Price 11.3	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5780-5840	5830-5870	50/30	Send to cash remittance
East China	5910-5970	5990-6050	80/80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5900-5950	5950-6000	50/50	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5920	5700-5920	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5860-5870	5900-5920	40/50	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5650-5800	5720-5850	70/50	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices rose slightly, the market atmosphere is slightly better. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 30-50 yuan / ton, East China 80 yuan / ton, South China 50 yuan / ton, Northeast China stable, Central China 40-50 yuan / ton, Southwest China 50-70 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of upstream PVC production enterprises has been raised by 50-70 yuan per ton, including simultaneous price increases in remote warehouses, individual increases in ethylene enterprises, and some enterprises still wait and see. The strong operation of futures led to the active quotation in the spot market, and the prices in various regions followed the rise. After the futures price went up, the spot price offer advantage disappeared, but there were still quotations, including 01 contract in East China-(150), 01 contract in South China-(100), 01 contract in North China-(500), 01 contract in Southwest China-(300). Point price is only for reference and there is no transaction advantage. Traders mainly ship goods at one price, and there are certain transactions at lower purchase prices, but with the rise of futures, intraday traders' quotations are tentatively raised, but the transaction is blocked after the rise.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading small shock upward, intraday there is a certain increase. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose further, the high point refreshed the previous high after the National Day, and the afternoon price as a whole ran in a relatively high and narrow range to the end. 2401 contracts range from 6078 to 6184 throughout the day, with a price difference of 106. 01 contracts reduced their positions by 43883 positions and 798896 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6284, with 116637 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of the nbsp; PVC2401 contract price refreshes the pre-operation high of 6184 after the National Day, and the fluctuation range of the futures price in today's trading day expands to more than 100 points, changing the trend of narrow-band operation of the depressed horizontal market, the fluctuation of the futures price and the direction are more from the stimulation of the news. The technical level shows that the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) are all upward, and the KD line at the daily level shows a golden fork trend again. Recently, the market has been in the state of reducing positions and leaving the market, and today it has reduced more than 43000 positions. It is more obvious for funds to leave the market, and their positions continue to decline. In the short term, excluding the news stimulus, we think that there is some pressure on the operation of the futures price, and observe the performance of the 6200 mark.

Spot: the two cities today showed a slight upward trend, some areas of the spot market feedback inquiry activity increased, but some areas reported that the spot market is less willing to rise, especially the downstream products enterprises have obvious psychological resistance to high prices. First of all, at present, there are not many variables on the supply and demand level of PVC, and the price increases in the two cities are mainly from the stimulation of the news side. Ministry of National Security: national security organs should put prevention and resolution of financial risks in a more important position, actively participate in the construction of the national security system in economic, financial and other fields, and be a firm guardian of financial security. In the outer disk, international oil prices rose more than 2.0%, ending a three-day decline as the Fed left its benchmark interest rate unchanged and risk appetite returned to financial markets. At the same time, the conflict in the Middle East continues to affect oil prices. On the whole, the spot market of PVC is slightly stronger in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 11.2	Price 11.3	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6088	6173	85
	Average spot price in East China	5940	6020	80
	Average spot price in South China	5925	5975	50
	PVC2401 basis difference	-148	-153	-5
	V2405 collection	6204	6284	80
	V2401-2405 closed	-116	-111	5
	PP2401 collection	7599	7695	96
	Plastic L2401 collection	8153	8235	82
	V--PP basis difference	-1511	-1522	-11
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2065	-2062	3

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC rose 54.09, or 0.921%, to 5927.41 on November 3. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6212.48, up 55.67, or 0.904%. The calcium carbide index rose, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 285.07.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	11.2 warehouse orders	11.3 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	351	351	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	351	351	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,343	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,350	1,350	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,474	9,474	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	2,584	2,584	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		31,016	31,016	0
Total		31,016	31,016	0