Gasoline: Market prices still decline, but the decline has narrowed

Gasoline: the market price is still down, but the decline has narrowed.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231031	America	WTI	81.02	-1.29
20231031	The United Kingdom	Brent	87.41	-0.04

 

Gasoline price index

On November 1, China's gasoline price index fell by 0.36%, or 32.32%, to 8830.84, while China's gasoline price index fell by 39.94, or 0.43%, to 9162.54. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 331.70.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, China's main wholesale gasoline prices are mainly stable, with some downward adjustments, with gasoline prices in North China, Central China and Northeast China reduced by 20-150 yuan per ton. The quotations in other regions are relatively stable and the regional quotations are adjusted differently. The ex-factory price of geo-refining declined slightly, including Shandong, North China, Northwest, East China and Northeast China, with a range of 30-100 yuan / ton. Gasoline prices remain unchanged in central China and southwest China. At present, the turnover in China's gasoline market is average, and the performance pressure of each sales unit at the beginning of the month is relatively small, and the willingness to push up the price is slightly higher. On the demand side, the replenishment procurement in the middle and lower reaches is relatively short, the purchase volume is small, and there are more purchases with sales, superimposed on the current part of the relatively low price.

November 1 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.31	Price 11.1	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8170-9600	8150-9600	-20/0
	95#	8370-10000	8350-10000	-20/0
South China	92#	8600-9680	8600-9680	0/0
	95#	8850-9980	8850-9980	0/0
Central China	92#	8550-9150	8450-9000	-100/-150
	95#	8750-9450	8650-9450	-100/0
East China region	92#	8400-9650	8400-9650	0/0
	95#	8600-10000	8600-10000	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8330-10000	8330-10000	0/0
	95#	8530-10450	8530-10450	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8600-9200	8600-9200	0/0
	95#	8850-9500	8850-9500	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8550-9800	8450-9800	-100/0
	95#	8720-10000	9500-10000	-220/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refining on November 1 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.31	Price 11.1	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	7950-8300	7950-8250	0/-50
	95#	8080-8470	8080-8460	0/-10
North China region	92#	8030-8050	8020-8030	-10/-20
	95#	8100-8180	8070-8180	-30/0
Central China	92#	8260-8260	8260-8260	0/0
	95#	8460-8460	8460-8460	0/0
East China region	92#	8150-8280	8120-8250	-30/-30
	95#	8270-8450	8240-8420	-30/-30
Northwestern region	92#	8100-8250	8050-8250	-50/0
	95#	8250-8450	8200-8450	-50/0
Northeast China	92#	8450-8500	8350-8500	-100/0
	95#	8800-8700	8700-8700	-100/0
Southwest China	92#	8650-8650	8650-8650	0/0
	95#	8800-8800	8800-8800	0/0

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the situation in the Middle East has not further escalated, and the geopolitical impact has weakened. However, at the macro level of the global economy, the weak posture is difficult to change; bearish factors have increased and market bearish sentiment has accumulated. From the perspective of the Chinese market, it is difficult to form a positive support without a bright spot on the demand side for the time being. on the supply side, in terms of flagging demand and poor refining profits, refineries may continue to reduce load to offset the gap between supply and demand. From the point of view of the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil, the new round of cumulative rate of change of crude oil is expected to be downgraded, and the news side is a negative guide. On the whole, China's gasoline market is expected to be mainly stable in the short term, with a slight downward adjustment.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on October 24, 2023, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has been reduced by 70 yuan per ton (standard, the same below). After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be November 7.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10345	9285
Tianjin	10310	9250
Hebei Province	10310	9250
Shanxi province	10380	9305
Liaoning province	10310	9250
Jilin Province	10310	9250
Heilongjiang province	10310	9250
Shanghai	10325	9255
Jiangsu Province	10365	9290
Zhejiang Province	10365	9305
Anhui province	10360	9300
Fujian Province	10385	9315
Jiangxi province	10365	9310
Shandong province	10320	9260
Hubei province	10335	9275
Hunan Province	10375	9335
Henan province	10330	9270
Hainan province	10455	9385
Chongqing	10525	9460
Guangdong province	10390	9320
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10455	9385
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10315	9250
Gansu province	10295	9270
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10090	9145
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10325	9265
Chengdu city	10530	9485
Guiyang city	10490	9410
Kunming City	10520	9440
Xi'an city	10295	9260
Xining City	10275	9295

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9580 yuan and 8520 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.