Methanol: Futures market fluctuated downward market transaction atmosphere was general

On November 1st, the methanol market price index was 2259.76, up 0.78 from yesterday and 0.03 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 31:

China's CFR ranges from US $278 to US $280 per ton, down US $2 per ton.

European FOB 345-346 euros / ton, up 6.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 96-98 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2180-2200 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2060-2130 (- 20), Lunan: 2360-2380 (- 40), Henan: 2260-2290 (- 20), Shanxi: 2220-2240 (20), Port: & nbsp;2430-2435 (15)

Freight:

Northern route-200-300 (- 10amp 0), southern route-northern Shandong 250-310 (0max 0), Shanxi-northern Shandong 110-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-southwest Shandong 170-230 (0max 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the futures market is volatile and downward, many devices on the supply side of the Chinese market are stopped for maintenance, the demand side fluctuates slightly, the purchasing enthusiasm of the operators is poor, and the market transaction is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are arranged in a narrow range: 2060-2130 yuan / ton for the northern line, 20 yuan / ton for the low-end reduction, 2080-2100 yuan / ton for the southern line, 20 yuan / ton for the low-end increase, overhaul and restart of the equipment in the field, rising and falling quotations for enterprises, some enterprises have shipping demand, the quotation is lowered, and the purchase price is sold at a bargain, and some transactions are acceptable, and we will pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field in the later stage. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with southern Shandong 2360-2380 yuan / ton, low-end down 40 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2340-2350 yuan / ton, low-end stable. At present, the market trading atmosphere is general, and operators are more wait-and-see. The price in North China has been partially raised, including 2220-2240 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2280-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end and rigid demand in the lower reaches. Prices in southwest China have been raised, of which Yungui quoted 2470-2540 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2400-2550 yuan / ton, and the low end has been raised by 50 yuan / ton. at present, part of the equipment is parking and overhauled, the supply of goods in the field is slightly tight, the price is firm, and the negotiation is flat. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures volatility is weak today. Spot negotiations are sparse; long-term opening negotiations are limited, a small number of unilateral bargains, the atmosphere is slightly deadlocked, the basis stabilized. The overall turnover throughout the day was light. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2415-2425, base difference 01: 010 transaction 11: 2415-2435, base difference 01: 8 beat 10: 11 transaction: 2435-2445, base difference 01: 23 impulse 25: 12 transaction: 2445-2455, basis difference 01: 35.

Forecast in the future: there is no support on the macro and cost side in the near future, the supply side devices in the Chinese market fluctuate frequently, Yunnan Pioneer, Guizhou Tianfu, Yunnan Quzhou Coal and other devices stop and repair, Aowei Qianyuan, Yulin Yanzhou Mining and other devices storage and maintenance plan, China's supply has shrunk, coupled with the rising mood of natural gas in China, the quotations of gas companies in southwest China have been raised, but there is still a demand for storage in some areas, mainly to fill the gap at every bargain. Follow up to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand point of view, the profits of some enterprises in the lower reaches continue to lose money, although the start-up of the olefin industry is still on the high side, but the start-up of various products in the market is lower than that in the previous period, and the market atmosphere is slightly deadlocked. At present, the inventory of some factories is high, the downstream purchasing volume is at a low level, traders and downstream rigid demand replenishment, short-term demand is expected to be weak. Follow up to pay attention to the start-up and load change of olefin plant in the field. At present, the macro and cost support is general, the basic face of the market drive is limited, the low level of the futures market affects the market mentality, under the long-short game, the market operators have a strong wait-and-see mood for the future, and it is expected that the methanol market price may be weak in the short term. in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil, coal and natural gas.