Daily review of urea: Prices continue to rise and downstream trading atmosphere weakens (November 1)

China Urea Price Index:

According to calculations from Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on November 1 was 2,565.59, up 11.50 from yesterday, up 0.45% month-on-month, and up 1.39% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2327, the highest price is 2380, the lowest price is 2322, the settlement price is 2345, and the closing price is 2337. The closing price is up 4,400 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, up 0.17% month-on-month. The fluctuation range of the whole day is 2322-2380; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 193; the 01 contract has increased its position by 1885 lots today, and so far, the position is 366466 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea prices are temporarily stable, and downstream companies are following up appropriately. Companies 'early receipts are good and are ready to support. Coupled with positive international news, companies' factory quotations continue to be consolidated at a high level.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have risen to 2,550 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,400 - 2,600 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,500 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,480 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,520 - 2,570 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,500 - 2,660 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,550 - 2,660 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,630 - 2,660 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the supply side, despite the continuous shipment of goods from the port and factories in recent days, corporate inventories are still low and the spot supply status is tight. In addition, starting this month, due to the impact of natural gas restrictions, gas-based urea production has begun to gradually decline, and the future gas supply will decrease. On the manufacturer's side, supported by the transaction of new orders in the past two days, the company's quotations continue to rise, and the mentality is good. In terms of demand, most purchases have been needed recently, agricultural demand is still mainly based on reserves, and industrial demand is mostly replenished based on demand. In terms of the market, prices continued to rise, resulting in a cooling down in the overall market transaction activity compared with the previous two days. Agriculture in the Northeast and Northwest regions received goods on demand, and the overall market demand showed regionalization.

On the whole, the current atmosphere in the urea market in China's main producing areas is improving, and downstream inquiries are active. However, due to the continuous rise in prices in the past two days, the industry has gradually developed a wait-and-see attitude, and it is expected that the urea market price will be deadlocked and consolidated in a short period of time.