PVC: Futures fluctuations are narrowing and lack of directionality, reducing positions and leaving the market on the sidelines, and adjusting spot within a narrow range

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November 1, 2023, 4:18 PM

PVC futures analysis: November 1st V2401 contract opening price: 6090, highest price: 6111, lowest price: 6055, position: 836498, settlement price: 6085, yesterday settlement: 6064, up: 21, daily trading volume: 818988 lots, precipitated capital: 3.572 billion, capital outflow: 87.88 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.31	Price 11.1	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5770-5850	5780-5840	10/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5880-5950	5910-5970	30/20	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5940-5980	5920-5960	-20/-20	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5900	5700-5900	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5870-5890	5870-5890	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5650-5800	5650-5800	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price narrow adjustment, trading lukewarm. Compared with the valuation, the low-end price in North China rose 10 yuan / ton, the high-end price fell 10 yuan / ton, East China rose 20-30 yuan / ton, South China fell 20 yuan / ton, and Northeast, Central China and Southwest China were stable. Upstream PVC production enterprises mostly maintain stable ex-factory prices, individual enterprises to stimulate shipments slightly reduced by 30 yuan / ton. Futures are still running in a narrow range and slightly stronger, and the spot market offers in various regions are slightly adjusted, with little change as a whole, and quotations in some areas have risen slightly. The price and spot price market coexist, and some of the supply bases are weakening, including East China basis offer 01 contract-(130-150), South China 01 contract-(100), North 01 contract-(500), Southwest 01 contract-(300). Although the two quotations coexist, the transaction is generally poor in various regions, and the resistance to the high price transaction is greater, the inquiry on the point price is also lack of sufficient enthusiasm, and the downstream wait-and-see intention is obvious.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading is still adjusted in a narrow range, intraday price volatility is small. After the start of morning trading, the futures price rose slightly, breaking through 6100, but the high point did not continue to break through in this position, and the afternoon price was still dominated by consolidation. 2401 contracts range from 6055 to 6111 throughout the day, with a spread of 56. 01. The contract reduced its positions by 21989 positions and has held 836497 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6218, with 111198 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the operation of nbsp; PVC2401 contract prices continues to adjust horizontally and narrowly, and the high range is within the range of 6100-6150 as we expected. The market still shows a state of substantial reduction, and since the recent departure of high positions, on the one hand, due to the relatively narrow adjustment of futures prices, speculative warehouse receipts are unable to show a better profit space no matter how short they are. on the other hand, the current incentives from fundamentals and policy aspects are insufficient, and the volatility of futures prices is also lack of sufficient direction. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) is upward, and there is a trend of intersection between the KD lines at the daily level. We continue to maintain our previous judgment and continue to observe the performance in the range of 6100-6150.

Spot aspect: & the narrow adjustment of nbsp; futures price makes the spot market transaction light, terminal products enterprises in addition to rigid demand replenishment, there is no larger intention to sell goods, in addition to narrow consolidation of the market so that the spot market also lacks sufficient speculative demand, production enterprises and traders only maintain the basic delivery rhythm. At present, the basic variables of PVC are few, the supply side has been stable, and the small adjustment of operating rate can not shake the prices of the two cities. Weak and high inventory on the demand side has always been the consensus of the industry chain. Outer disk: international oil prices closed lower as concerns about possible supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict abated and data showed an increase in crude oil production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries (OPEC) and the United States. On the whole, the trend of narrow adjustment in the spot market remains unchanged in the short term, waiting for new stimulus to emerge.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.31	Price 11.1	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6090	6100	10
	Average spot price in East China	5915	5940	25
	Average spot price in South China	5960	5940	-20
	PVC2401 basis difference	-175	-160	15
	V2405 collection	6201	6218	17
	V2401-2405 closed	-111	-118	-7
	PP2401 collection	7588	7614	26
	Plastic L2401 collection	8142	8160	18
	V--PP basis difference	-1498	-1514	-16
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2052	-2060	-8

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC was 5877.86, up 3.05%, or 0.052%. The ethylene method PVC spot index was 6159.39, down 2.06%, with a range of 0.033%. The calcium carbide method index rose, the ethylene method index decreased, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 281.53.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.31 warehouse orders	11.1 warehouse receipt quantity	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	351	351	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	351	351	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,343	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,350	1,350	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,474	9,474	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	581	581	0
PVC subtotal		30,276	30,276	0
Total		30,276	30,276	0