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Caustic soda: Short futures entered the market and fell back, the price of spot alkali flakes dropped significantly, and liquid alkali stabilized but moved slightly

93,205
November 1, 2023, 4:00 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    November 1 SH2405 contract opening price: 2625, highest price: 2629, lowest price: 2566, spread: 63, position: 93459, increase: 908, settlement price: 2599, yesterday settlement: 2607, down: 8, closing price: 2574, daily trading volume: 175771 hands, precipitated capital: 1.732 billion, capital outflow: 14.49 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October thirty _ first

November first

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1000-1400

1000-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

896-928

896-928

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

760-840

760-840

0/0

-

Hebei

810-840

810-840

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

1020-1280

1020-1280

0/0

Can price

Shandong

750-910

750-910

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1050-1100

1050-1100

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

760-850

760-850

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2800-2900

2800-2900

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

760-880

760-880

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1320-1450

1320-1450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1440-1450

1440-1450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1320-1480

1320-1480

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3000-3050

3000-3050

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3100-3250

2650-3000

-450/-250

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3600

3500-3600

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1230-1430

1230-1430

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

940-1000

940-1000

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3600

3350-3600

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:       the overall trend of China's caustic soda market is differentiated, the overall liquid caustic soda market moves steadily, prices in individual areas are adjusted sporadically, the market mentality is cautious, the tablet caustic soda market goes down, and the ex-factory quotation is mainly lowered. Today, the trading atmosphere of liquid alkali prices is general, and prices have stabilized as a whole, with prices falling sporadically in only a few areas. from the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, the prices of 32% ionic membrane alkali and 50% ionic membrane alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The overall market has not changed much, the supply side has devices today to reduce the load is about to enter the rest period, individual pre-maintenance equipment has also been restored today, the market supply side shows regional changes. Individual areas downstream demand is flat, enterprise shipping pressure is relatively large, so there is a decline in market transaction prices, market prices in most areas are stable, the mentality is more cautious. Upstream production enterprises in individual areas of manufacturers lower prices, manufacturers in most areas of cautious mentality, there is no price adjustment behavior. Today, the plant construction of most enterprises in the tablet alkali market is relatively stable, the social inventory is at a low level, and most of the downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand procurement. Today, most manufacturers in Northwest China have lowered their new order quotations. However, some traders reflect that the shipment situation has improved, the market transaction prices are adjusted more cautiously in some areas, and some markets wait and see mainly.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract shows an overall downward trend today. Night trading price concussion operation, the overall did not see a big market, after the opening of the morning price rose to the recent high began to fall, the late diving is obvious, the afternoon price upward slightly repaired, but fell again in the late afternoon. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2566-2629 throughout the day, with a price difference of 63. 05. the contract increased its position by 908 and has held 93459 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tdd-global data, China's caustic soda index was 2903.38, down 45.88, or 1.556%, and China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract in yesterday's stage high, failed to resist the pressure on the track, today turned to a downward trend, intraday trading, opening more than 16.8% compared to 19.4%, empty 18% compared to flat 20.2%, short entry is obvious; technical level shows that Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) three-track opening narrowed, daily KD line gold fork trend has shrunk, MACD line shows golden fork trend. On the whole, the operation of the short-term futures price is effective, and the operation of the short-term futures price may be wound around the middle track.

Spot aspect: the current trend of the liquid alkali market is still weak, but the overall market has stabilized today, the mentality of most operators is relatively cautious, the supply side is relatively sufficient, some enterprises have the phenomenon of accumulation, and the downstream demand maintains rigid demand procurement as a whole. at present, the alumina market is stable, and the main downstream manufacturers in Shandong have no price reduction action for the time being, which is also an invisible benefit to the market, which needs to be paid attention to in the later stage. Non-aluminum downstream also did not see an obvious increase in demand, mainly to maintain rigid demand, downstream overall procurement enthusiasm is not good, chlor-alkali enterprises shipping pressure still exists, short-term liquid alkali market may still be under pressure operation. The price reduction of the new order in the tablet alkali market this week is relatively large. At present, the start-up of most tablet alkali plants is relatively stable, and individual enterprises have a small amount of inventory, but due to the relatively weak downstream demand, more rigid demand procurement is given priority to. In addition, some traders reflect that the shipment situation has improved, and it is expected that the short-term tablet alkali market may be weak and stable, and the market mentality may be more cautious.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October thirty _ first

November first

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

100-300

200-400

100/100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-300

300-400

100/100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

100-150

50/50

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

150-350

250-450

100/100

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

350-450

350-450

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-150

100-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

200-400

300-500

100/100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 350, up 50, or 16.67%, and China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: