Methanol: Futures rebounded after falling, Chinese market transactions are still acceptable

On October 31, the methanol market price index was 2258.98, up 2.01 from yesterday and 0.09 per cent higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 30th:

China CFR 280,285 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 338.25-339.25 euros / ton, up 2.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 96-98 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2180-2200 (20), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2110 (0), Lunan: 2400 (30), Henan: 2280-2295 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (- 40), Port: & nbsp;2415-2450 (0)

Freight:

Northern Route-Northern Shandong 210-300 (10am 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 230-310 (- 20Uniqure 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0max 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 170-240 (0gammer 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot quotation fluctuates by 10-40 yuan / ton, the futures market rebounds slightly after falling, the fundamental drive of the Chinese market is limited, and the trading situation in some areas is OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially raised, with quotes of 2080-2110 yuan / ton for the north line and 2060-2080 yuan / ton for the south line, with low-end stability, and the inventory of enterprises in the field is much low, and some devices are being parked and overhauled, and some enterprises offer firm quotations, but the mentality of chasing high is cautious, and the transaction is general, and the later stage pays attention to the restart of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with 2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, 2340-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and stable at the low end. at present, the trading atmosphere in the market is general, and operators are more wait-and-see. Today's market bidding price is around 2340-2350 yuan / ton, including Shenchi chemical methanol bidding price of 2350 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2340 yuan / ton, Oriental Hualong 2340 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2200-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2280-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end, rigid demand procurement in the lower reaches, and partial transactions are OK. Prices in southwest China have been raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2470-2540 yuan / ton, low-end price is 50 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2350-2520 yuan / ton, and low-end price is 40 yuan / ton. at present, part of the equipment is parking and overhauled, the supply of goods in the field is slightly tight, and the negotiation is active. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fell after consolidation today. Spot rigid demand negotiations; long-term arbitrage trading quotations, after the fall to buy gas to improve part of the unilateral participation, the basis slightly stronger. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2435, base difference 01pm 11 deal: 2430-2450, base difference 01pm 10x 11 transaction price: 2435, base difference 01pm 5pm 10x 11 deal: 2430-2455, base difference 01 "13max" 24x 12: 2445-2470, base difference 01mm 30pm 36th.

Future forecast: from the point of view of supply: there are both on-site equipment overhaul and restart recently, Yunnan Pioneer, Guizhou Tianfu and other devices are parking and overhauling, Xinjiang Zhongtai, Shaanxi Weihua and other devices have been restored one after another, and the overall supply side of the Chinese market does not fluctuate much. there is still demand for depot drainage in some areas, while the rising sentiment of natural gas in China is getting stronger, coupled with the slight shortage of supply in southwest China. Methanol prices in some areas have been raised, and follow-up attention will be paid to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand point of view: the profits of some downstream enterprises continue to lose money, resulting in varying degrees of decline in the start-up of some industries and plant load, coupled with the early active preparation of downstream factories, the current factory inventory is high, downstream procurement demand has declined, rigid demand replenishment is mainly, with the end of Jinjiu Silver Ten, the market atmosphere shows a slight stalemate, traders and downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, demand performance is weaker than the previous period. Follow up to pay attention to the start-up and load change of olefin plant in the field. At present, the macro and cost support is general, the supply and demand side fluctuates little, the long and short factors in the market are intertwined, and the industry has a strong wait-and-see mood towards the future, and it is expected that the methanol market price may be fluctuated in the short term. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil, coal and natural gas.