Caustic soda: Futures continue to push up, showing a golden cross at the technical level, and most spot prices fall

Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 31 SH2405 contract opening price: 2590, highest price: 2638, lowest price: 2582, spread: 56, position: 92551, reduced position: 7984, settlement price: 2607, yesterday settlement: 2584, up: 23, closing price: 2621, daily trading volume: 204110 hands, precipitated capital: 1.747 billion, capital outflow: 131 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)
Specifications	Market	October thirtieth	October thirty _ first	Rise and fall	Remarks
32% ionic membrane alkali	Northeast China	1000-1400	1000-1400	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Northwest	912-992	896-928	-16/-64	Ex-factory price
	North China	760-840	760-840	0/0	-
	Hebei	810-840	810-840	0/0	Ex-factory price
	South China	1020-1280	1020-1280	0/0	Can price
	Shandong	755-910	750-910	-5/0	Current exchange rate
	Zhejiang	1070-1100	1050-1100	-20/0	-
	Jiangsu Province	790-860	760-850	-30/-10	Delivery price
	Tianjin	2800-2900	2800-2900	0/0	A discount of 100%
	Anhui Province	830-930	760-880	-70/-50	Ex-factory price
	Henan	3200-3300	3200-3300	0/0	A discount of 100%
50% ionic membrane alkali	North China	1320-1450	1320-1450	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Hebei	1440-1450	1440-1450	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Shandong	1350-1480	1320-1480	-30/0	Current exchange rate
	Tianjin	3000-3050	3000-3050	0/0	A discount of 100%
	Southwest	3400-3500	3200-3300	-200/-200	A discount of 100%
99% tablet alkali	Northwest	3100-3250	3100-3250	0/0	Ex-factory price
	Shandong	3500-3650	3500-3600	0/-50	Ex-factory price
45% ionic membrane alkali	Northeast China	1680-1750	1680-1750	0/0	Ex-factory price
49% ionic membrane alkali	Jiangsu Province	1280-1450	1230-1430	-50/-20	Ex-factory price
30% ionic membrane alkali	Southwest	970-1030	940-1000	-30/-30	-
48% ionic membrane alkali	Henan	3350-3600	3350-3600	0/0	A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today China's caustic soda market continues to decline, fundamentals are still weak operation, liquid alkali market is obviously bad, prices in most areas are down, there is no new price in the main producing areas of the caustic soda market, and the market is stable for the time being. Today, the price of liquid alkali fell in most areas. from the point of view of market price adjustment in various regions, 32% of ionic membrane alkali fell by 5-70 yuan / ton, 50% of ion-exchange membrane alkali fell by 30-200 yuan / ton, 49% of ion-exchange membrane alkali fell by 20-50 yuan / ton, and 30% of ion-exchange membrane alkali fell by 30 yuan / ton. the prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the main downstream alumina enterprises in Shandong have reduced their prices again, the ex-factory quotation of local liquid alkali has been lowered, the center of gravity of market transaction prices has shifted downward, and prices in some surrounding areas have fallen; the downstream demand in some areas is poor, and there is great pressure on enterprises to ship goods. In addition, due to the impact of falling prices in Shandong, the center of gravity of local market transaction prices has moved downward. Although the purchasing enthusiasm in the lower reaches of individual areas has improved, the overall performance of enterprise shipments is general, with prices falling mainly; the market trend in other regions is relatively stable, there are no factors affecting the market trend, and the price center of gravity of market transactions has not changed significantly for the time being. Most of the upstream production enterprises lowered their ex-factory quotations, mostly concentrated in the northwest, southwest and East China, while individual enterprises in Shandong raised their ex-factory quotations. Today, the pre-sale situation of manufacturers in the tablet alkali market is normal, most enterprise installations are relatively stable, the supply is sufficient, the downstream demand is regionally poor, the manufacturers in the northwest region have not yet issued a new order price, and most of the market maintains a wait-and-see mentality. The shipping situation of enterprises in some areas is poor, and price reduction is the main way to promote shipment.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to show a concussive upward trend. Night trading price volatility mainly, after the opening of the morning price and began to rise, the late shock down, afternoon trading continued to rise strongly, to a high of 2638 after a slight decline. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2582-2638 throughout the day, with a price gap of 56 and a reduction of 7984 positions in contracts, with 92551 positions so far.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index fell by 1.408% to 2949.26, down 42.13%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: the operation of the caustic soda SH2405 contract price showed a recent high of 2638, and the trading volume showed a reduced position. In terms of trading today, it opened 17.4% more than the short opening 16.7%, and the empty flat 21.1% compared with the multi-flat 21.7%. The bulls have a slight advantage, but there is no big difference. Although the recent futures prices show a phased rise, but can not be judged as an improvement in the market, fundamentals still suppress the upward space of the market. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bolin belt (13, 13, 2) narrows obviously, and the futures price continues to rise after breaking the middle track; the daily KD line gold fork trend expands, the MACD line turns to show the golden fork trend, and the current futures price shows a phased high point. the operation of short-term futures prices may be pushed up by a small progressive model, paying attention to the upper rail pressure level.

Spot aspect: the spot market lacks good news stimulation, at present, bad news is dominant, and the fundamental weakness is the root cause of the market downturn. From the point of view of the industrial chain, under the situation of weak demand, most merchants report that the shipping situation is poor, and their ability to digest orders is limited, coupled with the stable operation of most enterprise installations and sufficient supply. The high level of social inventory caused by weak demand restricts the fundamentals of caustic soda, in addition, there is also insufficient guidance to the market in other aspects, and there is no obvious guidance in the face of the market. Therefore, in the later stage, if the market is no longer stimulated by good news, the market may continue to operate under pressure.

 

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on October 31, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 300, down 11.11%, or 3.57%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: