Daily review of urea: Agricultural fertilizer preparation period is shortened, market transaction atmosphere is active (October 31)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 31 was 2,554.09, up 33.50 from yesterday, up 1.33% month-on-month, and up 0.98% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2325, the highest price is 2355, the lowest price is 2311, the settlement price is 2333, and the closing price is 2335. The closing price is up 2,200%, and the daily fluctuation range is 2311-2355; the basis of the 01 contract in Shandong is 205; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 6569 lots today, and so far, the position is 364581 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market continues to operate strongly, prices continue to rise, factory sales are smooth in a short period of time, downstream procurement continues to follow up, international prices are supported by high levels, and corporate quotations are adjusted upward.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have risen to 2,500 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,400 - 2,570 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,500 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,480 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,520 - 2,570 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,500 - 2,640 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,550 - 2,640 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,600 - 2,660 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, Nissan is still operating strongly at present, and the market supply continues to be sufficient. Supply may be expected to decline in the future. By then, Nissan will be lower than the current level. On the enterprise side, the market atmosphere is improving, and the number of new orders transactions by enterprises has increased. Due to the small amount of enterprises accumulated, the current spot supply in the market is tight. Most companies have taken the trend to increase their ex-factory quotations, and prices have strengthened and tried to rise. On the demand side, China's agricultural fertilizer preparation has increased this week. Affected by the shortened reserve period, market procurement enthusiasm has increased; industrial demand remains relatively stable, but as the peak season for high-nitrogen compound fertilizers begins in November, it is expected that the demand for urea for downstream compound fertilizers will increase in the later period. Internationally, after the supply of natural gas in the Egyptian market was tight, quotations in overseas markets began to increase. At present, Egypt's paper goods price in November has returned to US$400/ton.

On the whole, the urea market is currently affected by the increase in fertilizer reserves in China. Companies have received good orders, market confidence has been boosted, and factory production and sales are smooth. It is expected that the urea market price will continue to rise in the short term.