Methanol: Futures market is strong and fluctuates. Chinese market is consolidated at a high level

On October 30th, the methanol market price index was 2256.97, up 8.16% from the previous working day and 0.36% higher than the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 27th:

China CFR 277-283 USD / t, Ping

European FOB 336-337 euros / ton, up 6.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 96-98 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2160-2200 (10), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2110 (0), Lunan: 2370 (0), Henan: 2290-2300 (10), Shanxi: 2240 (0), Port: & nbsp;2415-2450 (10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 200-300 (- 10amp 0), Southern Line-Northern Shandong 250-320 (10ppm 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 170-250 (- 20mp 20)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged at a high level, the futures market is strong and volatile, the supply side devices in the Chinese market are gradually restored, the supply stock is expected to increase, the change in downstream demand is limited, local shipments are smooth, and multi-rigid demand transactions are the main. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mixed, with 2080-2110 yuan / ton on the north line and 2060-2080 yuan / ton on the south line, with low-end stability, low inventory of enterprises in the field, and parking and maintenance of some devices, but the good drive is limited, the downstream inventory is on the high side, traders fill the gap and close the deal, and later pay attention to the restart of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices have been partially raised, with 2370 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2340-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, with a stable low end. The current market trading atmosphere is general, and the market is more wait-and-see at the beginning of the week. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2240 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2280-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, low-end stability, downstream rigid demand procurement, general transaction. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, of which Yungui quotation is 2420-2500 yuan / ton, low-end price is 20 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2310-2400 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. At present, some devices are parked and overhauled, the supply of goods in the field is slightly tight, and some negotiations are active. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose after consolidation today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, moderate price transactions; long-term shipments are active, buying cautious, the basis continues to weaken. The price difference between months widened. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2415-2450, base difference 01-15 Maximus 11 transaction: 2430-2460, base difference 01pm 11 transaction price: 2450-2480, base difference 01x13 pound 20cross 12 transaction: 2470-2485, base difference 01x27exp 35.

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: the recent parking maintenance of some units has led to a reduction in supply, a certain support for methanol prices, little inventory pressure in the main production areas, general shipping demand, and a narrow reduction in China's overall enterprise inventories. However, with the gradual recovery of Jiutai, Guangju new materials and other devices, Shanxi Bianyang, Yigao, Black Cat and other devices are planned to restart, and the methanol industry may pick up. The supply in the Chinese market is expected to increase, pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. In terms of demand, the start-up performance of traditional downstream products varies, but the overall change is limited. Some MTO units are expected to store and stop, but the start-up of the olefin industry remains high. At present, most of the downstream products are in a state of loss, coupled with high inventory, poor purchasing enthusiasm of traders and downstream, and more rigid demand procurement, operators are generally bearish on the future, and downstream demand is expected to be weak, but the whole is still on the high side. Follow up to pay attention to the operation and load changes of downstream olefin units. At present, the macro and cost support is general, China's supply is recovering one after another, the demand is relatively limited, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is poor, the market operators are still bearish on the future market, and it is expected that the methanol market price may be fluctuated in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.