Caustic soda: Futures prices rose above the middle track, alumina prices fell again, and the spot market continued to be weak

Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 30th SH2405 contract opening price: 2572, highest price: 2611, lowest price: 2557, spread: 54, position: 100535, reduced position: 5084, settlement price: 2584, yesterday settlement: 2560, up: 24, closing price: 2594, daily trading volume: 200479 hands, precipitated capital: 1.878 billion, capital outflow: 77.46 million.

Market price of caustic soda:

Caustic soda spot analysis:       caustic soda prices in China fell regionally today, the overall market was weak and volatile, there were regional differences between supply and demand, the center of gravity of local transaction prices moved downward, the wait-and-see mood of operators in some areas was heavy, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market at the beginning of the week was poor. Today, the liquid alkali market maintains a weak operation. At the beginning of the week, the price center of gravity of market transactions in some areas moved downward, and the market trading atmosphere was general. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali dropped 30-60 yuan / ton, 50% of the ionic membrane alkali dropped 30-80 yuan / ton, and 49% of the ionic membrane alkali fell 50-100 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range did not change significantly. The early maintenance equipment in individual areas has been restored, the local supply has increased, and the price center of market transaction has moved downwards; the price of high concentration alkali in some areas has fallen, mainly due to sufficient supply side performance, poor downstream demand, and general enthusiasm for receiving goods. Chlor-alkali enterprises have a greater impact on the delivery pressure. The market trend in other regions is relatively stable, there are no factors affecting the market trend, and the price center of gravity of market transactions has not changed significantly for the time being. Some of the upstream production enterprises have lowered their ex-factory quotations, and most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize prices. Today, the market transaction price range in most areas of the tablet alkali market has slipped. At the beginning of the week, some manufacturers in the northwest region lowered their factory quotations, and the local market prices fell accordingly. In other areas, the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream was poor, and the merchants' shipments were not smooth. Therefore, lower the shipping price to promote the transaction. The price of tablet alkali in Shandong area is also reduced mainly. On the whole, the market is weak at the beginning of the week.

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract continues to shock upward. The night market fell after the shock, reaching its lowest point today; the price rose at the beginning of the morning, fell slightly in the late afternoon, and rose here in the afternoon. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2557-2611 throughout the day, with a price difference of 54. 05 contracts reduced their positions by 5084 hands, and have held 10535 positions so far.

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index fell by 1.298% to 3015.08, down 39.64%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

Prediction of the later stage of caustic soda:    

Futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract showed an upward trend at the beginning of the week. The trend of Mandarin commodity index is strong, and the overall mood of commodities is good; the technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) narrows, the high point of the futures price rises through the middle rail position, and the futures price rises through the 5 and 10 lines of the MA combination line and breaks the track; the gold fork trend of the KD line at the daily level expands, and the dead cross trend of the MACD line decreases obviously and has a cross trend, but from the technical level, the futures price has an upward trend. At present, the fundamentals are still weak, there is no news guidance on the policy, short-term futures may be entangled in the middle track, and the upside may be dragged down by fundamentals.

Spot: the fundamentals of the spot market are still weak, and the futures trend is deviating. Although the futures price has gone up, it has not effectively boosted the spot market trend. At present, there are regional differences between supply and demand, but there is a situation of more supply and less demand in the market as a whole. poor performance on the demand side leads to pressure on spot digestion and obvious weakness in fundamentals. In addition, downstream alumina reappears the behavior of price reduction. Since October 31, the main downstream alumina enterprises in Shandong have once again lowered the purchase price of liquid alkali. This is the fifth time in this month that the purchase price has been lowered, resulting in a strong suppression of spot prices. In the short term, the trend of the caustic soda market is difficult to improve in the short term, and prices have a further downward trend.

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 27.67%, or 9.76%, to 311.11 on October 30th. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

Caustic soda holding the list: