Methanol: Futures open lower and go higher. The trading atmosphere in the Chinese market is light

On October 27th, the market price of methanol was 2248.81, up 0.48 from yesterday and 0.02 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 26th:

China CFR 277-280USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 329.5-330.5 euros / ton, up 4.50 euros / ton

Us FOB 96-98 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2180 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2110 (0), Lunan: 2370-2380 (- 10), Henan: 2280-2290 (0), Shanxi: 2240 (0), Port: & nbsp;2405-2435 (- 10)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-300 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 190-270 (10max 10)

Spot market: today, the methanol market fluctuates, the futures market rises after the volatility, the supply side equipment in the Chinese market returns gradually, the supply is expected to increase, the demand fluctuation is limited, and the market operators buy more cheaply. The overall trading atmosphere is slightly light. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are stable and small, with quotes of 2080-2110 yuan / ton on the north line and 2060-2080 yuan / ton on the south line, with low-end stability. The temporary shutdown of the device leads to a spot shortage in Xinjiang, and there is a certain support for the price. Some enterprises save a certain demand for shipments, quotation falls, downstream often meet bargain to fill the gap, and follow-up pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price of consumer land is down, with 2370-2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, 2340-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 10 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry remains. Prices in North China are stable and small, including 2240 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2280-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, low-end stable, downstream rigid demand procurement, general transaction. Prices in southwest China have been partially raised, including Yungui quotation of 2400-2490 yuan / ton, low-end price increase of 40 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing quotation of 2310-2400 yuan / ton, low-end stability, on-site inventory increase, Qitou methanol profit loss under the suppression of terminal demand, and general trading atmosphere. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose after the shock today. During the month, rigid demand buying and selling, shipments are active, and the basis is weakening obviously. After pulling up, there are high shipments in the far month, the basis is weak in November, stable and weak in December, and the price difference between months expands. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 10 deals: 2395-2435, basis 01-5 picks 10 investors 11: 2410-2445, base difference 01: 10 picks 20 investors 11: 2445, bases 01: 15 transactions 11 deals: 2415-2460, base differences 01 "25 moves" 32 investors 12 deals: 2430-2475, bases 01 "37 tips" 43.

Future forecast: in the near future, there is no support for macro and cost in the face of the market. on the supply side, the 1.2 million-ton coal plant in Guanghui, Xinjiang is temporarily stopped, resulting in a shortage of supply in some parts of the northwest, forming a certain support for prices in the main producing areas. Traders and downstream actively purchase, production enterprises inventory slightly to the warehouse, currently Tuoxian Jiutai 2 million-ton plant restart, Zhongtai, Shanxi Ganyang, easy advanced devices are planned to restart in the near future The start-up of the methanol industry may pick up somewhat, and the supply in the Chinese market is expected to increase, so pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. In terms of demand, the start-up performance of traditional downstream products varies, but the overall change is limited, and the start-up of the olefin industry remains high. At present, the procurement demand in the lower reaches is relatively scattered, which is still dominated by rigid demand replenishment, and the overall demand side does not fluctuate much. in addition, the demand in the port area is expected to be weak, market sentiment is empty, and follow-up attention will be paid to the operation and load changes of downstream olefin units. At present, the cost support is weak, China's supply is recovering one after another, the demand side has no obvious fluctuation for the time being, the market operators are still bearish on the future market, and the methanol market price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. in the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.