Gasoline: Lack of positive factors, the market continues to decline

Gasoline: lack of positive factors, the market continues to decline

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231026	America	WTI	83.21	-2.18
20231026	The United Kingdom	Brent	87.93	-2.2

 

Gasoline price index

On October 27th, China's gasoline price index fell 33.14, or 0.37%, to 8901.60, while China's gasoline price index fell 37.07, or 0.40%, to 9238.21. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 336.61.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China is mainly down, with a reduction of 50-150 yuan per ton in North China, Central China, East China and Southwest China. The overall price of the refinery is 20-100 yuan / ton. At present, the rigid demand in China's gasoline market is dominant, the support of international oil prices is weak, the bearish sentiment in the middle and lower reaches of China is strong, and inventory is mainly digested with caution in operation. The refinery shipping task is poor, and the transaction policy is flexible and preferential.

October 27th wholesale price of gasoline (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.26	Price 10.27	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8400-9600	8300-9600	-100/0
	95#	8600-10000	8500-10000	-100/0
South China	92#	8650-9650	8650-9650	0/0
	95#	8900-9950	8900-9950	0/0
Central China	92#	8600-9200	8550-9200	-50/0
	95#	8750-9400	8700-9400	-50/0
East China region	92#	8550-9650	8400-9650	-150/0
	95#	8750-10000	8600-10000	-150/0
Northwestern region	92#	8330-10000	8330-10000	0/0
	95#	8530-10450	8530-10450	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8750-9330	8700-9200	-50/-130
	95#	9000-9650	8950-9650	-50/0
Northeast China	92#	8600-9800	8600-9800	0/0
	95#	8900-10000	8900-10000	0/0

 

October 27 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.26	Price 10.27	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8050-8380	8050-8340	0/-40
	95#	8180-8600	8130-8600	-50/0
North China region	92#	8110-8220	8110-8170	0/-50
	95#	8250-8280	8250-8230	0/-50
Central China	92#	8370-8370	8340-8340	-30/-30
	95#	8570-8570	8540-8540	-30/-30
East China region	92#	8200-8380	8180-8380	-20/0
	95#	8320-8550	8300-8550	-20/0
Northwestern region	92#	8250-8250	8150-8250	-100/0
	95#	8350-8450	8250-8450	-100/0
Northeast China	92#	8450-8700	8450-8600	-100/-100
	95#	8900-8900	8800-8800	-100/-100
Southwest China	92#	8650-8650	8600-8600	-50/-50
	95#	8800-8800	8750-8750	-50/-50

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the uncertainty caused by the Palestinian-Israeli conflict still has an impact on oil price changes, and geopolitical events may weaken if geopolitical events have no impact on crude oil supply under the market wait-and-see trade-off. From the perspective of the Chinese market, there is still no positive factor to boost, the demand performance is generally insufficient support, the market short-term upward power is insufficient, there is more than downside space. Taken together, it is expected that there is still room for decline in China's gasoline market in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on October 24, 2023, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has been reduced by 70 yuan per ton (standard, the same below). After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be November 7.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10345	9285
Tianjin	10310	9250
Hebei Province	10310	9250
Shanxi province	10380	9305
Liaoning province	10310	9250
Jilin Province	10310	9250
Heilongjiang province	10310	9250
Shanghai	10325	9255
Jiangsu Province	10365	9290
Zhejiang Province	10365	9305
Anhui province	10360	9300
Fujian Province	10385	9315
Jiangxi province	10365	9310
Shandong province	10320	9260
Hubei province	10335	9275
Hunan Province	10375	9335
Henan province	10330	9270
Hainan province	10455	9385
Chongqing	10525	9460
Guangdong province	10390	9320
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10455	9385
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10315	9250
Gansu province	10295	9270
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10090	9145
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10325	9265
Chengdu city	10530	9485
Guiyang city	10490	9410
Kunming City	10520	9440
Xi'an city	10295	9260
Xining City	10275	9295

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9580 yuan and 8520 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.