Methanol: Futures rebounded after falling, Chinese market transactions are still acceptable

On October 26th, the market price of methanol was 2248.33, up 6.75% from yesterday and 0.3% higher than the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 25:

China CFR 277-279USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 325-326 euros / ton, up 5 euros / ton

Us FOB 96-98 cents per gallon, up 1 cent per gallon

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2150-2180 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2080-2110 (10), Lunan: 2380 (10), Henan: 2280-2310 (10), Shanxi: 2240-2260 (0), Port: & nbsp;2415-2445 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-300 (0ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-320 (10ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 180-260 (- 60max 0)

Spot market: today, methanol market prices rose narrowly, futures rebounded slightly after falling, supply in the Chinese market is expected to increase, demand fluctuations are limited, market operators often buy cheaply, and local transactions are OK. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have been partially raised, with 2080-2110 yuan / ton in the north line, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, 2060 yuan / ton in the south line and 10 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the equipment in the field fluctuates frequently, and the quotations of enterprises rise and fall each other. Some enterprises have raised their quotations for shipment, some enterprises have slightly under pressure to lower their quotations for shipment, meet bargains and fill gaps, and part of the transaction is smooth. Follow-up attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The market price of consumer land has been raised, with 2380 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, 2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, and 10 yuan / ton in the low end. At present, the trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the wait-and-see mood of operators still exists. Prices in North China have been partially raised, of which Shanxi quoted 2240-2260 yuan / ton, low-end stable, Hebei quoted 2280-2320 yuan / ton, low-end raised 30 yuan / ton, downstream rigid demand procurement, part of the transaction is OK. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2360-2460 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2310-2400 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing. The low end is stable. At present, the market talks are flat, the terminal rigid demand is purchased, and the trading atmosphere is stable. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly after falling today. There are few spot negotiations. Within the month arbitrageurs let the goods out, unilateral bargain replenishment; afternoon forward shipments increased, the basis weakened. The spread widened in October and November. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: 10 transaction price: 2405-2435, base difference 01: 15 prime position 20 position 11 transaction: 2420-2440, base difference 01: 20 pound 30 position 11 transaction price: 2420-2435, base difference 01: 28 prime 30 transaction 11 transaction: 2425-2460, basis 01: 30 prime 40 transaction 12: 2430-2450, base difference 01x40.

Future forecast: from the point of view of supply: at present, there are both overhaul and restart of the plant in the field, the 1.2 million-ton coal plant in Guanghui, Xinjiang is temporarily stopped, and the 2 million-ton plant in Tuoxian Jiutai is being restarted, and some of the units are planned to restart within the week. Methanol industry may pick up, the supply in the Chinese market is expected to increase, coupled with the port market imports and domestic trade vessels are replenished, the port inventory is burdened, and China's supply as a whole shows a trend of steady growth. Pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. From the demand point of view: the start-up of the traditional downstream part has been reduced, but the overall change is small, the start-up of the olefin industry still remains high, and the demand side fluctuates little. At present, the procurement demand in the lower reaches is relatively scattered, and it is still dominated by rigid demand replenishment. Follow-up attention to the operation of downstream olefin units and load changes. At present, the support on the cost side is weak, the supply of methanol market is expected to grow, and downstream purchasing maintains rigid demand. The bearish mentality of the operators on the future remains, and the price of methanol market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy, the situation of olefin production, as well as the prices of crude oil and coal.