Methanol: Limited fundamental fluctuations, weak methanol market consolidation

On October 25th, the market price of methanol was 2241.58, down 3.1 from yesterday and 0.14% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 24:

China CFR 277-279 US dollars / ton, up 2 US dollars / ton

European FOB 320-321 euros / ton, up 5 euros / ton

Us FOB 95-97 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2110 (10), Lunan: 2370-2400 (- 10), Henan: 2270-2290 (0), Shanxi: 2240-2260 (30), Port: & nbsp;2400-2425 (- 15)

Freight:

Spot market: today, the methanol market is weak, the futures market is wide and volatile, the supply side of the Chinese market is not high upstream inventory, downstream rigid demand procurement, local transactions are OK, the overall market atmosphere is slightly weaker. Specifically, the market price range of the main producing areas is sorted out, the price on the north line is 2070-2110 yuan / ton, the low end is raised by 10 yuan / ton, and the price on the south line is 2050-2060 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. Shaanxi Changqing methanol is quoted for the second time this week by 20 yuan / ton: 2170 yuan / ton for large single price and 2180 yuan / ton for small one. The methanol plant of this plant runs stably, the operation of the plant is unstable at present, and the inventory of some enterprises is not high. Downstream and traders rigid demand for replenishment, the transaction price is relatively strong, follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. The market price of consumer land has been partially reduced, with 2370-2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong, 10 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2340-2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong, which is stable at the low end. at present, the trading atmosphere in the market is general, and the wait-and-see mood of operators still exists. The price in North China has been partially raised, including 2240-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2260-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end and rigid demand in the lower reaches. Prices in southwest China have been lowered, of which Yungui quotation is 2360-2460 yuan / ton, low-end price is 40 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2310-2400 yuan / ton, and low-end price is 20 yuan / ton. at present, the market negotiation is flat, the terminal rigid demand is buying, and the trading atmosphere is stable. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated widely today. The stock offer is limited. Within the month, arbitrage shipments are active, unilateral bargain and replacement, the basis is slightly weaker; the long-term basis remains stable. The price difference between 10 and 11 widens, and the goods are exchanged frequently. The overall deal is OK. Taicang main port transaction price: 10 deal: 2415-2445, base difference 01 "20 prime" 26 position 11 transaction price: 2420-2440, base difference 01 "30 prime 35"

11 deal: 2430-2435, base difference 01: 35, base difference 11: 2420-2455, base difference 01: 36, margin 38, transaction 12: 2430-2455, base difference 01: 38.

Forecast in the future: the coal price is weak and stable in the near future, the market mood is poor, and the cost support is limited. At present, there are still some unstable operation of some devices in the field, such as Jiutai, Yanzhou Mining Phase I, Qinghai Zhonghao and other devices during parking maintenance. Methanol industry starts to decline, downstream to maintain rigid demand replenishment, enterprise inventory narrowly reduced during the week, traders shipping pressure is not great, but the overall supply in the field is not significantly reduced. Coupled with the replenishment of imports and domestic trade vessels in the port market, the performance of the port inventory, the overall short-term supply in China is still relatively sufficient, pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. In terms of demand, the start-up of the olefin industry has maintained a high level, and the start-up of other traditional industries has been partially adjusted, but the overall change is small, and the performance of the demand side is relatively stable, but at present, the downstream procurement demand is relatively scattered and is still dominated by rigid demand replenishment. The demand side is not obviously driven for the time being, and the follow-up attention is paid to the operation and load changes of downstream olefin units. At present, the macro and cost performance is average, the supply and demand side is in a stalemate stage, the market is more affected by the market, the cautious wait-and-see mentality of the market operators still exists, and it is expected that the methanol market price will be arranged in a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, olefin production and crude oil and coal prices.