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Caustic soda: The pressure level above futures is obvious, and the price of spot alkali flakes has dropped sharply

90,203
October 25, 2023, 4:17 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 25th SH2405 contract opening price: 2587, highest price: 2609, lowest price: 2555, spread: 54, position: 102488, position reduction: 3906, settlement price: 2579, yesterday settlement: 2560, up: 19, closing price: 2557, daily trading volume: 209723 hands, precipitated capital: 1.887 billion, capital outflow: 91.83 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October twenty _ fourth

October twenty _ fifth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1100-1400

1100-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-992

912-992

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

790-890

790-890

0/0

-

Hebei

840-890

840-890

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

1040-1330

1020-1330

-20/0

Can price

Shandong

810-910

810-910

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1100-1130

1100-1130

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

820-920

820-920

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

2850-3050

2850-3050

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

830-930

830-930

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1400-1490

1400-1490

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1490-1530

1490-1530

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1400-1480

1400-1480

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3150-3250

3150-3250

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3150-3450

3100-3250

-50/-200

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3500-3650

3500-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1380-1500

1380-1500

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today China's caustic soda market continues to show a downward trend, tablet caustic soda market downward adjustment is more obvious, the overall liquid alkali market is relatively stable, individual regional prices are flexibly adjusted, the market atmosphere is weak, and the overall mood in the market is not high. Today, the trend of the liquid alkali market in most areas is relatively stable, the prices in individual regions are adjusted flexibly, and the market as a whole is stable. Judging from the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali has individually dropped by 20 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The changes on both sides of supply and demand in the market are not obvious today, and they are relatively mild. The situation of enterprise shipments has been maintained in the early stage, the downstream receiving of goods is lukewarm and maintains rigid demand for purchasing low replenishment, and the market trend in each region is relatively stable. There are no factors affecting the market trend, and the price center of gravity of market transactions has not changed significantly for the time being. Individual manufacturers of upstream production enterprises adjust their quotations slightly and there are differences in the direction of quotation, and most manufacturers wait and see to stabilize prices. Today, the overall decline of the tablet alkali market is obvious, and the market sentiment is weak. this week, the new order quotation in the northwest region has been lowered, the ex-factory quotation of some manufacturers has been lowered obviously, the market transaction price center of gravity in most areas has moved down, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods downstream in some areas is poor. Market sentiment is not high, and the mindset of the operators is empty. As a whole, the tablet alkali market is mainly down, and the market atmosphere is poor.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract wide volatility. Night futures showed a volatile trend as a whole; early prices quickly rose to the intraday high of 2609 and then fell back in late trading; afternoon prices fluctuated above and below the 2573 line and did not see a big market. As of today's close, SH2405 contracts fluctuated in the range of 2555-2609 throughout the day, with a price difference of 54. 05 contracts reduced their positions by 3906 hands, and have held 102488 positions so far. Market turnover: 15.8% more, 20.4% empty; 21.8% more than flat 19.9%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 3083.03, down 22.28, or 0.718%, on October 25, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: caustic soda SH2405 contracts show negative column operation again after three consecutive suns, and today's futures run with wide concussion. Although the high price of the futures price rises above the 10th line of the MA combination line, the strength to continue to rise is obviously insufficient; the technical level shows that the upper track of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) narrows obviously; the daily KD line base difference trend continues, and the MACD line dead cross trend shrinks. At present, the performance of fundamentals is weak, the upward trend of futures price is limited, and the short-term price is concerned about the pressure level of the mid-track position. Spot aspect: at present, by the end of October, only individual devices with small production capacity have maintenance plans, and the plant in most areas is stable, and the supply side as a whole is relatively sufficient; downstream demand maintains rigid demand and purchases low replenishment mainly, the fundamentals do not have obvious positive support. After the weak decline of the liquid alkali market, the trend may relatively maintain a weak and stable trend in the later stage, and the prices in some areas will be adjusted flexibly, but we still need to pay attention to whether there is price reduction in the lower reaches. After stabilizing for a period of time, the tablet alkali market declined this week, the mentality of the operators was weak, the trading atmosphere in the market was poor, and the regional markets may be weak in the short term.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October twenty _ fourth

October twenty _ fifth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

1-200

1-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

-50-100

-50-100

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-150

100-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

100-300

100-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on October 25, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 283.44, down 0, a range of 0%. China's liquid chlorine index is stable.