Gasoline: Fundamental support is weak, and the downward trend of the market remains unchanged

Gasoline: fundamental support is weak and the market is still in a downward trend.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231024	America	WTI	83.74	-1.75
20231024	The United Kingdom	Brent	88.07	-1.76

 

Gasoline price index

On October 25, China's gasoline price index fell 74.31, or 0.82%, to 8951.01, while China's gasoline price index fell 72.47, or 0.77%, to 9291.25. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 340.25.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China continues to decline, with the overall market falling by 50-200 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price is mainly reduced, the reduction is concentrated in 50-100 yuan / ton. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market continues to be flat, the market wait-and-see mood is strong and bearish, the operation of operators entering the market is significantly reduced, and the procurement frequency of rigid demand slows down; the monthly task of refineries is poor, mainly out of storage. On the whole, the fundamental support is weak and the market is still in a downward trend.

October 25th wholesale price of gasoline (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.24	Price 10.25	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8500-9600	8400-9600	-100/0
	95#	8700-10000	8600-10000	-100/0
South China	92#	8800-9700	8800-9600	0/-100
	95#	9050-10000	9050-9900	0/-100
Central China	92#	8700-9200	8600-9200	-100/0
	95#	8850-9400	8750-9400	-100/0
East China region	92#	8750-9650	8550-9650	-200/0
	95#	8950-10000	8750-10000	-200/0
Northwestern region	92#	8530-10050	8530-10000	0/-50
	95#	8730-10450	8700-10450	-30/0
Southwest China	92#	8850-9400	8800-9350	-50/-50
	95#	9100-9780	9050-9720	-50/-60
Northeast China	92#	8700-9800	8600-9800	-100/0
	95#	8930-10000	8900-10000	-30/0

 

October 25 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.24	Price 10.25	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8100-8420	8050-8380	-50/-40
	95#	8250-8640	8180-8600	-70/-40
North China region	92#	8160-8200	8110-8170	-50/-30
	95#	8300-8260	8250-8230	-50/-30
Central China	92#	8470-8470	8370-8370	-100/-100
	95#	8670-8670	8570-8570	-100/-100
East China region	92#	8280-8450	8200-8380	-80/-70
	95#	8400-8620	8320-8550	-80/-70
Northwestern region	92#	8250-8450	8250-8450	0/0
	95#	8350-8650	8350-8650	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8600-8700	8600-8700	0/0
	95#	9000-8900	9000-8900	0/0
Southwest China	92#	8800-8800	8750-8750	-50/-50
	95#	8950-8950	8900-8900	-50/-50

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the performance of European economic data is poor, the superimposed war has not been further intensified, and international oil prices have fallen for three consecutive days, driven by the lack of positive factors in the oil market. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the retail price limit is reduced and the gasoline (standard) is reduced by 70 yuan / ton, which is a negative guide to the news. In addition, the state released new news: an additional trillion yuan of treasury bonds will be issued in the fourth quarter of this year to boost China's commodity sentiment, including gasoline. After the state increased policy support, the gasoline market remained downward, a more important factor is the fundamentals of China's supply and demand, the current situation of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to improve in a short time. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline market will continue to decline in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on October 24, 2023, the price of gasoline and diesel in China has been reduced by 70 yuan per ton (standard, the same below). After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be November 7.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10345	9285
Tianjin	10310	9250
Hebei Province	10310	9250
Shanxi province	10380	9305
Liaoning province	10310	9250
Jilin Province	10310	9250
Heilongjiang province	10310	9250
Shanghai	10325	9255
Jiangsu Province	10365	9290
Zhejiang Province	10365	9305
Anhui province	10360	9300
Fujian Province	10385	9315
Jiangxi province	10365	9310
Shandong province	10320	9260
Hubei province	10335	9275
Hunan Province	10375	9335
Henan province	10330	9270
Hainan province	10455	9385
Chongqing	10525	9460
Guangdong province	10390	9320
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10455	9385
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10315	9250
Gansu province	10295	9270
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10090	9145
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10325	9265
Chengdu city	10530	9485
Guiyang city	10490	9410
Kunming City	10520	9440
Xi'an city	10295	9260
Xining City	10275	9295

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9580 yuan and 8520 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.