Daily Review of Urea: Positive export support weakens Urea prices weakens (October 25)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 25 was 2,513.45, down 5.91 from yesterday, down 0.23% month-on-month, and down 0.02% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2210, the highest price is 2250, the lowest price is 2188, the settlement price is 2219, and the closing price is 2226. The closing price is 27% higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 1.23%. The daily fluctuation range is 2188-2250, and the spread is 62; the 01 contract has increased 8468 lots today, and so far, 328005 lots have held.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices are being consolidated. Currently, the factory quotations of companies are mostly stable. Currently, due to the loose supply and the slowdown in downstream demand, companies with high previous quotations have taken advantage of the trend to cut their quotations.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,460 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,320 - 2,520 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,500 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China have stabilized at 2,420 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been lowered to 2,460 - 2,510 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been lowered to 2,430 - 2,640 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been lowered to 2,530 - 2,640 yuan/ton. Prices in South China are stable at 2,580 - 2,640 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the current supply continues to be high, the supply side is relatively loose, and companies have no pressure on shipments. In terms of manufacturers, some companies are still waiting for orders and mainly issue early orders, but the number of orders is gradually decreasing. As there is insufficient waiting for orders in the later period, it is expected that companies will lower their quotations more to give profits and attract orders. On the demand side, with the arrival of winter, the market's demand has begun to gradually weaken, and farmers are willing to reserve more purchases. However, due to the current high prices, the market has not attracted downstream merchants to reserve purchases, and the market trading atmosphere continues to be dull. On the export side, rumors about this stamp mark say that China has very little participation and companies 'export mentality has been hit hard. With the weakening of favorable export support, prices may continue to consolidate downward.

On the whole, except for the support of enterprises, there are currently no new positive factors in the urea market. Export policies have been tightened, supply is high, and downstream demand has been slow to follow up. It is expected that the urea market will be dominated by weakness in the short term.