Gasoline: Price limit reduction is approaching, and the market continues to decline

Gasoline: the price limit is approaching, and the market is falling.

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231023	America	WTI	85.49	-3.26
20231023	The United Kingdom	Brent	89.83	-2.33

 

Gasoline price index

On October 24, China's gasoline price index fell 90.59, or 0.99%, to 9025.31, while China's gasoline price index fell 81.55, or 0.86%, to 9363.72. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 338.41.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the decline in the main wholesale price of gasoline in China is more than and mostly concentrated in the low-end price, of which the overall market reduction is 50-200 yuan / ton. The ex-factory price of the refinery is generally downward, with a reduction of 50-200 yuan / ton. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is light, the market negative factors are not reduced, and the lack of rigid demand support is mainly manifested in the heavy wait-and-see mentality in the middle and lower reaches, the obvious decline in purchasing frequency and quantity, and the lack of refinery shipments, which leads to poor sales in most areas and slow release speed.

October 24 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.23	Price 10.24	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8550-9600	8500-9600	-50/0
	95#	8750-10000	8700-10000	-50/0
South China	92#	8950-9700	8800-9700	-150/0
	95#	9200-10000	9050-10000	-150/0
Central China	92#	8800-9200	8700-9200	-100/0
	95#	8950-9400	8850-9400	-100/0
East China region	92#	8800-9650	8750-9650	-50/0
	95#	9000-10000	8950-10000	-50/0
Northwestern region	92#	8730-10050	8530-10050	-200/0
	95#	8930-10450	8730-10450	-200/0
Southwest China	92#	8900-9450	8850-9400	-50/-50
	95#	9150-9830	9100-9780	-50/-50
Northeast China	92#	8750-9800	8700-9800	-50/0
	95#	8990-10000	8930-10000	-60/0

 

The ex-factory price of gasoline refinery on October 24 (RMB / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.23	Price 10.24	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8200-8470	8100-8420	-100/-50
	95#	8310-8690	8250-8640	-60/-50
North China region	92#	8210-8300	8160-8200	-50/-100
	95#	8350-8360	8300-8260	-50/-100
Central China	92#	8550-8550	8470-8470	-80/-80
	95#	8750-8750	8670-8670	-80/-80
East China region	92#	8340-8500	8280-8450	-60/-50
	95#	8460-8670	8400-8620	-60/-50
Northwestern region	92#	8450-8650	8250-8450	-200/-200
	95#	8550-8850	8350-8650	-200/-200
Northeast China	92#	8600-8800	8600-8700	0/-100
	95#	9000-9000	9000-8900	0/-100
Southwest China	92#	8950-8950	8800-8800	-150/-150
	95#	9100-9100	8950-8950	-150/-150

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the development of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict involves the supply of crude oil. At present, the risk of supply disruption is reduced, which is bad for oil prices. However, the European and American manufacturing PMI data are about to be released, which may be expected to be good, which will be a game of bad and good factors. From the perspective of the Chinese market, demand continues to be weak, and some local refineries are willing to reduce the processing load and maintain a relatively low load, but the market as a whole is still in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and Chinese fundamentals are not good to boost. In addition, the current round of refined oil price adjustment is about to be realized, the reduction in expectations is clear, the news is negative guidance. Taken together, it is expected that China's gasoline market may still be in a downward trend in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on October 10, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China have been reduced by 85 yuan and 80 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be October 24.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10415	9355
Tianjin	10380	9320
Hebei Province	10380	9320
Shanxi province	10450	9375
Liaoning province	10380	9320
Jilin Province	10380	9320
Heilongjiang province	10380	9320
Shanghai	10395	9325
Jiangsu Province	10435	9360
Zhejiang Province	10435	9375
Anhui province	10430	9370
Fujian Province	10455	9385
Jiangxi province	10435	9380
Shandong province	10390	9330
Hubei province	10405	9345
Hunan Province	10445	9405
Henan province	10400	9340
Hainan province	10525	9455
Chongqing	10595	9530
Guangdong province	10460	9390
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10525	9455
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10385	9320
Gansu province	10365	9340
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10160	9215
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10395	9335
Chengdu city	10600	9555
Guiyang city	10560	9480
Kunming City	10590	9510
Xi'an city	10365	9330
Xining City	10345	9365

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9650 yuan and 8590 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.