PVC: Futures chose to move sideways between ups and downs, and the spot market continued to organize in a narrow range

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October 24, 2023, 4:59 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 24th V2401 contract opening price: 6020, highest price: 6038, lowest price: 5946, position: 922397, settlement price: 5989, yesterday settlement: 5985, up: 4, daily trading volume: 1006997 lots, precipitated capital: 3.871 billion, capital outflow: 24.78 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.23	Price 10.24	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5730-5800	5730-5790	0/-10	Send to cash remittance
East China	5820-5930	5800-5900	-20/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5900-5990	5900-5960	0/-30	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5900	5700-5900	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5800-5830	5800-5830	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5700	5600-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: mainstream transaction prices in China's PVC market continue to be sorted out in a narrow range, with prices falling slightly in some areas. Valuation comparison: high-end prices in North China fell by 10 yuan / ton, East China fell by 20-30 yuan / ton, South China high-end prices fell by 30 yuan / ton, and prices in Northeast, Central China and Southwest China were stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises still remain stable, with individual enterprises reducing 50 yuan / ton to promote transaction. The futures price continues to fluctuate in the range, and the spot market price is slightly downgraded. At present, both the spot market price offer and the spot price offer are available, and the price base difference offer does not change much. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(70-100-150), South China 01 contract-(0-30-80), North 01 contract-(400-520), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Recently, the spot market has maintained a narrow range of arrangement, although the price changes have been adjusted every day, but the range has narrowed, the unilateral downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong, contradictory to the high price, some of the price has been negotiated slightly, and the market transaction is limited.

Futures point of view: PVC2401 contract night trading price opened a high of 6038, slightly weaker. Prices continued to fall slightly after the start of morning trading, but the overall decline did not begin to fluctuate at the 5980 front line. Afternoon prices rose slightly from a low of 5946 in late afternoon trading. 2401 contracts range from 5946 to 6038 throughout the day, with a spread of 92. 01. The contract reduced its position by 3281 positions and has held 922397 positions so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6106, with 106978 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: The fluctuation of the futures price of the PVC2401 contract is slightly awkward, and the operation of the overall futures price seems to be obviously rising and falling, but it has chosen to trade sideways for a long time between 5900 and 6050. On the one hand, the funds above 6000 under the current position are not willing to bear the risk of further push up, and the consensus of the industry chain is that the upper pressure level is 6100, so it is relatively anxious even if the price is 100. on the other hand, the futures price is below 5950. Bears also lack enough bearish chips to continue to press down, resulting in the short-term price operation has always been dominated by narrow arrangement, and the feedback on PVC fundamentals and commodity sentiment is not stable. In the short term, futures prices may continue to operate around this range and continue to observe the performance of the 6000 mark.

Spot aspect: recent spot market price adjustment is relatively narrow, no matter up or down has been a small margin, some areas have even been wait-and-see. And the price adjustment participation of upstream enterprises is insufficient, most of them maintain a wait-and-see mentality and the price is stable, and the basic quantity of a generation of contracts is signed. Traders in various regions feedback that the digestion rate of spot is slow, and the actual single-hanging point of downstream products enterprises is generally on the low side. Today, most of the spot market hanging orders are below 5950. In terms of PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices began to rise sporadically by 50 yuan / ton, PVC supply rose steadily and slightly, and pre-maintenance enterprises started work one after another, but the current trend from fundamentals has little impact on the prices of the two cities. On the outer disk, oil prices fell more than 2 per cent as diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas intensified, easing investors' concerns about potential supply disruptions. On the whole, spot prices will continue to operate within a narrow range in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.23	Price 10.24	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	6012	5995	-17
	Average spot price in East China	5875	5850	-25
	Average spot price in South China	5945	5930	-15
	PVC2401 basis difference	-137	-145	-8
	V2405 collection	6110	6106	-4
	V2401-2405 closed	-98	-111	-13
	PP2401 collection	7443	7465	22
	Plastic L2401 collection	7989	7993	4
	V--PP basis difference	-1431	-1470	-39
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1977	-1998	-21

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the China calcium Carbide PVC spot Index fell 11.81, or 0.202%, to 5823.73 on October 24. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6133.16, down 5.72, or 0.093%. The calcium carbide index fell, the ethylene index fell, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 309.43.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.23 warehouse orders	10.24 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	351	351	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	351	351	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,343	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,269	9,269	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	7	7	0
PVC subtotal		30,076	30,076	0
Total		30,076	30,076	0