Methanol: Futures market continues to be under pressure to lower regional trend in the spot market

On October 24th, the market price of methanol was 2244.68, down 17.82 from yesterday and 0.79 per cent from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 23:

China CFR 275-281 US dollars / ton, down 4 US dollars / ton

European FOB 315-316 euros / ton, up 9.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 95-97 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asia CFR 346-347USD / ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2060-2100 (- 10), Lunan: 2380-2400 (0), Henan: 2270-2295 (- 20), Shanxi: 2210-2260 (- 30), Port: & nbsp;2415-2440 (- 25)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 220-310 (10ax 20), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-330 (0ax 10), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 240-250 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market continues to be weak, the futures market is volatile, the supply side of the Chinese market is partially overhauled but still remains high, the demand side fluctuates little, and some enterprises lower their quotations for shipment, and the transaction situation is slightly better. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with 2060-2100 yuan / ton on the north line, 10 yuan / ton on the low end, 2050 yuan / ton on the south line and 2050-2060 yuan / ton on the south line, and the low end is stable. at present, some devices in the field resume production, and the supply side is not good for the time being. the decline in the futures market aggravates the bearish mentality of the market, downstream and traders operate cautiously, maintain rigid demand and buy more, and follow up to pay attention to the operation of the equipment in the field. The price of the consumer market is stable, with 2380-2400 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2350 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the market trading is temporarily stable, and the wait-and-see mood of the industry remains. Today's market bidding price is around 2340-2350 yuan / ton, of which Shenchi chemical methanol bid price 2350 yuan / ton, Lihuayi 2340 yuan / ton. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, including 2210-2260 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 30 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2260-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end and rigid demand in the lower reaches. Prices in southwest China are stable and small, among which Yungui quotation is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2330-2400 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the current market negotiation is mediocre, the terminal rigid demand is purchased, and the transaction is general. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures are weak and volatile today. A small amount of negotiation in stock. Forward arbitrage shipments are the main, unilateral low enquiries, the basis slightly stronger in recent months, stabilized in December. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall transaction is active throughout the day. 10 deals: 2400-2425, base difference 01x25Universe 30holders 11. Deal: 2405-2425, base difference 01x33 pictups 35 positions 11 deals: 2405-2430, bases 01x40 positions 12 deals: 2415-2430, base differences 01x40x 43.

Future forecast: the recent macro mood is general, the cost support is limited, some devices in the field are overhauled and stopped, but the production of parking devices resumes one after another, the operating rate of methanol industry remains high, and the inventory of some Chinese enterprises accumulates. coupled with the recent low volatility of the futures market, aggravating the market bearish mentality, some enterprises actively lower their quotations and shipments, and most of them ship goods in general. In the short term, China's overall supply is still relatively sufficient, pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. In terms of demand, the start-up of the traditional downstream part is slightly reduced, and the stock and reduction of traditional demand is expected, but the overall change is small. The start-up of the olefin industry remains high, and the demand side increases steadily as a whole, but at present, the mood of traders and downstream receiving goods is general. Procurement demand is more scattered, still dominated by rigid demand replenishment, and there is no obvious demand volume for the time being. Follow-up attention to the operation of downstream olefin units and load changes. At present, the macro and cost performance is average, the supply and demand side basically remains high, the market is more affected by the market, the cautious wait-and-see mentality of the operators in the market still exists, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to macro policies, olefin production, as well as crude oil and coal prices.