Methanol: Futures rebounded after diving, and Chinese markets weakened simultaneously

On October 23, the methanol market price index was 2262.94, up 1.3 per cent from the previous working day and 0.06 per cent month-on-month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 20:

China CFR 279-283 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 305.25-306.25 euros / ton, flat

Us FOB 95-97 cents per gallon, flat

Southeast Asian CFR 346-347 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2100 (0), Lunan: 2380-2400 (0), Henan: 2290-2305 (- 20), Shanxi: 2240-2280 (0), Port: & nbsp;2440-2450 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-290 (0ax 10), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-320 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0mp 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 240-250 (20max 20)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the futures market rebounds slightly after diving, the fundamental fluctuation of the Chinese market is temporarily limited, the overall shipments of production enterprises are general, the mentality of those on the market is weak, and the trading atmosphere in China is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small, with the quotation of 2070-2100 yuan / ton for the north line and 2050-2060 yuan / ton for the south line, and the low end is stable. Shaanxi Changqing methanol quotation is reduced by 80 yuan / ton: 2150 yuan / ton for large single price and 2160 yuan / ton for small single quotation. The plant has stable operation of 600000 ton methanol plant. At present, the plant has parking maintenance and negative reduction, and the supply side is good, but the macro mood is weak. The market mentality is often affected, traders operate cautiously, maintain rigid demand downstream, and follow up to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Up to now, the consumer market price is stable, southern Shandong 2380-2400 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2350 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market trading atmosphere is general, downstream rigid demand procurement. Prices in North China remain stable, including 2240-2280 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2260-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, low-end stability, downstream rigid demand procurement, general transaction atmosphere. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2400-2500 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2330-2460 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with stable low end. at present, the market negotiation is flat, the terminal rigid demand is purchased, and the transaction is flat. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly after falling today. Spot offer is limited, the basis is strong; long-term arbitrage is the main delivery, unilateral acceptance of bargain delivery, the basis is slightly stronger. The replacement of goods has continued in recent months. The overall deal was average. Spot transaction: 2415-2430, base difference 01x 25 position 10: 2415-2440, base difference 01x 25pm 28x 11 deal: 2425-2450, basis 01x 35pm 38x 12x: 2430-2450, basis 01x 37pm 40.

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: recently, a number of devices have been stopped for overhaul and load reduction, the supply pressure on the field has been alleviated, and methanol prices have been supported to a certain extent, but the futures market has fallen sharply, affecting the mentality of operators in the field. the shipments of most production enterprises are general, the inventory changes of Chinese enterprises are small, China's supply as a whole is still relatively sufficient, methanol prices have not risen significantly, pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the demand point of view: the start-up of the traditional downstream industry does not change much, the load of the olefin plant in Qinghai Salt Lake increases, the start-up of the olefin industry still remains high, and the demand side increases steadily as a whole, but at present, the mood of traders and downstream receiving goods is general, the procurement demand is more scattered, and the demand is still dominated by rigid demand replenishment, and the demand is not obvious for the time being, and the follow-up attention will be paid to the operation and load changes of the downstream olefin plant. At present, the macro and cost support is limited, the fundamental drive is temporarily limited, the recent device fluctuations frequently affect the market mentality, the cautious wait-and-see mentality of the operators in the market is still there, and it is expected that the methanol market price will be arranged within a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to macro policies, olefin production, as well as crude oil and coal prices.