PVC: Futures are running slightly stronger, loose orders are short-term, and spot market ranges are sorted out

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October 23, 2023, 4:30 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 23rd V2401 contract opening price: 5987, highest price: 6024, lowest price: 5947, position: 925678, settlement price: 5985, yesterday settlement: 5980, up: 5, daily trading volume: 1129743 lots, precipitated capital: 3.896 billion, capital inflow: 26.31 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.20	Price 10.23	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5730-5800	5730-5800	0/0	Send to cash remittance
East China	5850-5920	5820-5930	-30/10	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5930-5980	5900-5990	-30/10	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5900	5700-5900	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5800-5830	5800-5830	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5600-5700	5600-5700	0/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction price range collation, some areas rose slightly. Compared with the valuation, the low-end prices in North China are stable, the low-end prices in East China are down 30 yuan / ton, the high-end prices are up 10 yuan / ton, the low-end prices in South China are down 30 yuan / ton, and the high-end prices are up 10 yuan / ton. Prices in Northeast China, Central China and Southwest China are stable. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises basically remained stable, without obvious adjustment, coinciding with the wait-and-see mentality of a generation of merchants on Monday, and few orders were signed. Futures slightly strong operation, but the overall price adjustment of the spot market is not obvious, multi-range narrow arrangement, some areas merchants slightly increase the price. Spot market point price offer coexists, the basis adjustment is not large, including East China base offer 01 contract-(70-100-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-80), North 01 contract-(400-520), Southwest 01 contract-(250). On the whole, the purchasing enthusiasm of the downstream is not high, the wait-and-see intention is strong and the trading atmosphere is general, and the spot market is slightly light at the beginning of the week.

From a futures point of view: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened high and opened low on Friday night, with a certain downward trend but not a small decline and then repaired upwards. Early trading began after the price to maintain a narrow range of shocks, intraday rose to break the 6 prefix, in the afternoon near the 6 prefix narrow finishing. 2401 contracts range from 5947 to 6024 throughout the day, with a spread of 77. 01. The contract increased its position by 2412 hands, and so far it holds 925678 hands. The 2405 contract closed at 6110, with 106767 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: & the nbsp; PVC2401 contract price is slightly stronger in intraday trading, and the daytime futures price is basically located in the narrow range of the 6-word prefix, but the overall position does not change much. The trading statistics of the disk are still mainly empty, of which 25.1% are open compared with 22.3% more. The technical level shows that the meaning of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13,13,2) is obvious, the KD line at the daily level shows a golden fork trend, the MDCD dead fork trend shrinks, and the fluctuation of the futures price rises above the middle rail position. At present, the guidance from PVC fundamentals and macro policy ports is relatively small, from the perspective of chlor-alkali balance, caustic soda futures have declined significantly in the near future. On the whole, the operation of futures prices in the short term may still be dominated by medium-track winding, and continue to observe the performance of the 6000 mark.

Spot aspect: early week spot market operation relative interval arrangement, first of all, futures slightly strong operation, some areas of a price offer merchants still have a boost, but the range of adjustment is relatively narrow, upstream factories on the current market feedback slightly wait-and-see, more stable price digestion inventory. From an emotional point of view, the current adjustment is not enough to drive the spot market to run well, in addition, the overall high inventory constraints, and the current time node gradually into the off-season, downstream products enterprises are increasingly insufficient to follow up, so even if there are some rising trends in the two cities, the range is expected to be relatively narrow. However, for the current downside, it is expected that it will be difficult to have a relatively deep decline in the short term without further falling below the low of 5858 since the high has fallen sharply. Therefore, in the short term, the spot market will still appear as a small arrangement, and the price will be adjusted slightly.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.20	Price 10.23	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5987	6012	25
	Average spot price in East China	5885	5875	-10
	Average spot price in South China	5955	5945	-10
	PVC2401 basis difference	-102	-137	-35
	V2405 collection	6088	6110	22
	V2401-2405 closed	-101	-98	3
	PP2401 collection	7441	7443	2
	Plastic L2401 collection	7954	7989	35
	V--PP basis difference	-1454	-1431	23
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-1967	-1977	-10

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the spot index of China calcium Carbide PVC fell 5.19, or 0.089%, to 5835.54 on October 23. The ethylene PVC spot index was 6138.88, up 15.96, with a range of 0.261%, while the calcium carbide index decreased, the ethylene index rose, and the ethylene-calcium carbide index spread was 303.34.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.20 warehouse orders	10.23 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	351	77
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	351	77
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,343	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,269	9,269	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	7	7	0
PVC subtotal		29,999	30,076	77
Total		29,999	30,076	77