Daily review of urea: Indian label announced high prices and overall price increase in Chinese market (October 23)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 23 was 2,530.73, up 39.68 from last Friday, up 1.59% month-on-month, and down 0.54% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2265, the highest price is 2268, the lowest price is 2186, the settlement price is 2215, and the closing price is 2209. The closing price is down 65 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month decline is 2.86%. The daily fluctuation range is 2186-2268, and the spread is 82; The 01 contract has reduced its position by 34503 lots today, and so far, it has held 329528 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to show a rising trend. Affected by the high Indian label prices, most manufacturers 'factory quotations have risen firmly. Currently, downstream resistance to high prices has intensified.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been raised to 2,460 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been raised to 2,370 - 2,530 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China have been raised to 2,470 - 2,480 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,380 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have been raised to 2,500 - 2,550 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has been raised to 2,450 - 2,690 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been raised to 2,530 - 2,690 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have been raised to 2,600 - 2,660 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

On the supply side, there are not a small number of factories expecting to resume production this week. Nissan will continue to rise steadily, and production is expected to be higher than last week. In terms of manufacturers, the company has received a large number of orders in the early stage and orders have increased. Currently, shipments are under no pressure, and they can last for about a week. In terms of inventory, some factories have low inventories and have a slight intention of accumulating stocks. Currently, they control more orders. In terms of demand, the agricultural demand market has entered the winter storage stage, with more purchases on dips. The operating rate of compound fertilizers in the industrial market has dropped. Currently, demand is sluggish, and the market purchases are based on demand. In terms of cost, the changes in raw material prices are relatively stable, and the cost aspect is mainly organized. In terms of branding, the results of the new round of branding were announced this week. The lowest bid price is still higher than the current mainstream market quotation in China, supported by good international prices. However, some sources said that there are rumors in the market that the exports of individual companies have been suspended. There is a possibility of backflow of large particulate urea in the port, and the short-term market upside may be suppressed.

On the whole, the urea market is currently well supported by printed labels, supply continues to increase, and demand is mainly based on reserves. In addition, companies have the intention to accumulate stocks. It is expected that the urea market price will still have room to increase. In the later period, there may be a slowdown in goods acquisition and a contraction in the increase. situation.