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Caustic soda: Futures prices are highly restricted, Wenhua Commodity Index weakens, and spot prices fall

87,754
October 23, 2023, 3:57 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 23 SH2405 contract opening price: 2531, highest price: 2582, lowest price: 2519, spread: 63, position: 113158, increase: 6011, settlement price: 2547, yesterday settlement: 2538, up: 9, closing price: 2545, daily trading volume: 305841 hands, precipitated capital: 2.074 billion, capital inflow: 119 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October twentieth

October twenty _ third

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-1024

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

860-950

840-950

-20/0

-

Hebei

900-950

870-950

-30/0

Ex-factory price

South China

1050-1330

1040-1330

-10/0

Can price

Shandong

860-990

860-990

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1100-1130

1100-1130

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

890-960

870-950

-20/-10

Delivery price

Tianjin

2950-3100

2850-3050

-100/-50

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

900-970

900-970

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1480-1600

1450-1530

-30/-70

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1550-1580

1540-1580

-10/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1480-1560

1450-1500

-30/-60

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3300-3400

3150-3250

-150/-150

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3500-3650

-50/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1500-1600

1450-1600

-50/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:       today China's caustic soda market continues to maintain a regional downward trend, the market atmosphere is weak, prices in most areas of the liquid caustic soda market fall, individual manufacturers of tablet caustic soda prices are lowered, the price center of gravity of local market transactions moves downward, and most areas have a cautious attitude. Today, the liquid alkali market shows a downward trend, the market trend in some areas is poor, and the trading atmosphere is general. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali fell by 10-100 yuan / ton, 49% of the ionic membrane alkali fell by 50 yuan / ton, and 50% of the ionic membrane alkali dropped 10-150 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. First of all, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises in some areas is poor, and the shipping situation of enterprises is weak, so the shipping price is reduced; the overall market supply in some areas is relatively sufficient, but the performance on the demand side is poor, the market transaction situation is not ideal, and the price range moves down; the market transaction price center of gravity also moves down due to the influence of weak sentiment in the surrounding areas. The overall trend of the market in other regions has not changed much, the industry is mainly wait-and-see, and the operation of entering the market is more cautious. Some of the upstream production enterprises have lowered their ex-factory quotations, while most enterprises in other regions have not adjusted their ex-factory quotations, so the mentality of price adjustment is more cautious. Today, the performance of transactions in the tablet alkali market is general, and there are differences in enterprise shipments. Market arrangement is dominated in most areas. The prices of individual manufacturers in Ningxia and Shandong have been lowered at the beginning of the week, and the price center of local market transactions has also moved downwards. Most manufacturers in the northwest region offer relatively strong prices, the supply is stable as a whole, and most downstream demand maintains rigid demand procurement, and the mentality is relatively cautious.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract night market shock uplink, late trading down slightly. The opening price of today's morning trading quickly rushed to the highest level of 2582 today, and then fell back after a sharp plunge in the afternoon to give up the gains in the morning, and rose slightly again in late trading. Today's trading situation: more than 20.4% empty open 19.2%; empty 20.2% more than 20.6%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 3176.07 on October 23, down 22.32%, or 0.698%. China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract rebounded slightly, the rebound strength is still slightly insufficient, the Mandarin index fell, China's commodity sentiment is not high, caustic soda futures prices are affected by the overall commodity sentiment, it is difficult to get out of their own separate market. In terms of transaction, the opening of 20.4% is higher than that of 19.2%, and that of large orders is 12.8%, compared with 12.4%. The two sides of long and short are evenly matched; at the technical level, the trend of KD line crossing at the daily line level is obvious, and the dead cross trend of MACD line has slowed down. Spot aspect: the start-up of caustic soda units in most areas on the supply side is stable, and the overall market supply is relatively sufficient. Although there are maintenance conditions in individual areas, it is difficult to change the weak trend of the market, and the supply side does not play a supporting role in the market. Downstream enterprises mostly maintain the rhythm of rigid demand procurement and low replenishment, and the overall enthusiasm for receiving goods is general, so it is difficult to form obvious favorable support to the market, and the main downstream alumina enterprises announced at the beginning of the week that the purchase price of liquid alkali will be reduced from the beginning of the week. Bearish continues; in the case of weak fundamentals, it is expected that the short-term caustic soda market or regional decline is mainly, market sentiment is weak.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October twentieth

October twenty _ third

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

100-300

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-400

100-300

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

100-150

50-100

-50/-50

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

200-300

-100/-100

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on October 23, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 322.22, down 46.67, or 12.65%. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: