The soda ash market is stable and weakening. The market is pessimistic (10.19 Weekly Review of soda ash)

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October 20, 2023, 6:36 PM

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

This week, China's soda ash market is weak and downward. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is between 2,700 - 3,000 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton. This week, soda ash manufacturers have started operations and remained stable, and the market supply is sufficient. As manufacturers have successively delivered orders in hand, companies have put great pressure on new orders to ship. The inventory of some manufacturers continues to increase, and the inventory of light soda is higher than the inventory of heavy soda; Demand in the downstream market has been weak and stable, and the enthusiasm of companies to purchase has also declined. In addition, the market has a strong wait-and-see attitude in the soda ash market, and the market price has stabilized and weakened.

Forecast for next week: At the high level of enterprise start-up, demand support will decrease, supply and demand in the soda ash market may gradually be unbalanced, and the transaction volume of new orders in the market will not be much; the soda ash market will continue to decline, and market participants are mostly bearish on the future outlook. The market is pessimistic. Prices continue to show a downward trend.

2. 纯碱areas市场价格对比

Unit: yuan/ton

areas	specifications	October 12	October 19	rise and fall	previous month
Northeast China	light soda ash	2950	2825	-125	-4.24%
Northeast China	heavy sodium carbonate	3250	3100	-150	-4.62%
in North China	light soda ash	2900	2800	-100	-3.45%
in North China	heavy sodium carbonate	3175	3000	-175	-5.51%
East China	light soda ash	2900	2700	-200	-6.90%
East China	heavy sodium carbonate	3100	3000	-100	-3.23%
central China	light soda ash	2750	2575	-175	-6.36%
central China	heavy sodium carbonate	3075	2875	-200	-6.50%
South China	light soda ash	3150	2700	-450	-14.29%
South China	heavy sodium carbonate	3300	2950	-350	-10.61%
southwestern region	light soda ash	3050	2950	-100	-3.28%
southwestern region	heavy sodium carbonate	3350	3150	-200	-5.97%
northwestern region	light soda ash	2675	2350	-325	-12.15%
northwestern region	heavy sodium carbonate	2875	2550	-325	-11.30%

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of October 19 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1348 yuan/ton, down 217 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 1062 yuan/ton, down 168 yuan/ton from the previous week.

production process	October 12	October 19	Weekly ups and downs	rise and fall
combined alkali method	1565	1348	-217	-13.87%
ammonia-soda process	1230	1062	-168	-13.66%

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

This week, the soda ash industry started at 90%, an increase of 2% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 700,000 tons.

Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on October 19, 2023
process	enterprise name	production capacity	device condition
combined alkali method	Fujian Yaolong	40	Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined
combined alkali method	Huainan Debang	60	On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined.
chlor-alkali process	Jiangsu jingshen	60	The company will stop for maintenance on October 13, and the expected recovery time will be at the end of the month.

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 380,100 tons, compared with 320,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 60,100 tons, or 18.78%.