Gasoline: Demand performance is poor, market continues to decline

Gasoline: poor demand performance, market continues to decline

International crude oil closed

 

Date	Market	Specifications	Close (US dollars / barrel)	Rise and fall
20231019	America	WTI	89.37	1.05
20231019	The United Kingdom	Brent	92.38	0.88

 

Gasoline price index

On October 20, China's gasoline price index fell 10.88, or 0.12%, to 9188.37, while China's gasoline price index fell 7.00, or 0.07%, to 9523.81. The 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index were both downgraded, and the price difference between the 9-month gasoline index and the 9-month gasoline index was 335.44.

 

Gasoline market analysis:

Today, the wholesale price of gasoline in China has been reduced in some areas, including gasoline prices in South China, Central China and Northwest China, which fell by 50-100 yuan per ton, mostly concentrated in low-end prices. The ex-factory price of geo-refinery also showed a downward trend in some areas, including gasoline prices in North China, Northwest China and Southwest China fell by 50-200 yuan / ton. The quotation in Shandong area has been sorted out. At present, the turnover of China's gasoline market is flat, the international crude oil is rising, but China's gasoline demand is insufficient, which is characterized by rigid demand replenishment and short duration, and large orders are few. On the refinery side, the depletion of the stock is slow, and the willingness to explore the rise has weakened. On the whole, the demand side support is insufficient, and the market trading atmosphere is weak.

October 20 main wholesale price of gasoline (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.19	Price 10.20	Rise and fall
North China region	92#	8680-9600	8680-9600	0/0
	95#	8880-10000	8880-10000	0/0
South China	92#	9000-9700	8950-9700	-50/0
	95#	9250-10000	9200-10000	-50/0
Central China	92#	8900-9200	8850-9200	-50/0
	95#	9100-9450	9050-9450	-50/0
East China region	92#	8850-9650	8850-9650	0/0
	95#	9050-10000	9050-10000	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8830-10050	8730-10050	-100/0
	95#	9030-10450	8930-10450	-100/0
Southwest China	92#	9050-9530	9050-9530	0/0
	95#	9350-9950	9350-9950	0/0
Northeast China	92#	8900-9800	8900-9800	0/0
	95#	9200-10000	9200-10000	0/0

 

October 20 gasoline refinery ex-factory price (yuan / ton)
Area	Gasoline model	Price 10.19	Price 10.20	Rise and fall
Shandong area	92#	8400-8670	8400-8670	0/0
	95#	8480-8860	8480-8860	0/0
North China region	92#	8430-8550	8380-8480	-50/-70
	95#	8530-8600	8480-8530	-50/-70
Central China	92#	8700-8700	8700-8700	0/0
	95#	8900-8900	8900-8900	0/0
East China region	92#	8510-8620	8510-8620	0/0
	95#	8630-8790	8630-8790	0/0
Northwestern region	92#	8650-8750	8450-8650	-200/-100
	95#	8750-8950	8550-8850	-200/-100
Northeast China	92#	8800-8900	8800-8900	0/0
	95#	9100-9100	9100-9100	0/0
Southwest China	92#	9150-9150	9000-9000	-150/-150
	95#	9300-9300	9150-9150	-150/-150

 

Future forecast

From the perspective of international crude oil, the recent Israeli military action in Gaza may escalate again, and the market continues to pay close attention to the evolution of the situation in the Middle East. Although it does not have an impact on crude oil supply, the potential risks remain, and how it develops next will further support oil prices. From the perspective of the Chinese market, the fundamental support of the post-holiday gasoline market is insufficient, although the cost side of the international oil price rising phase to boost the gasoline market, but the demand performance is not good, the gasoline market is difficult to maintain the upward trend. From the point of view of the price adjustment mechanism of refined oil, approaching the price adjustment day, the comprehensive change rate of international crude oil is still running in a negative direction, and the new round of price limit is likely to be reduced. On the whole, it is expected that there is still some room for downward adjustment in China's gasoline market in the short term.

 

 

Maximum retail price list of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Since 24:00 on October 10, 2023, the prices of gasoline and diesel in China have been reduced by 85 yuan and 80 yuan per ton respectively. After the adjustment, the maximum retail prices of gasoline and diesel in all provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) and central cities are shown in the attached table. The next price adjustment is expected to be October 24.

 

Schedule

Maximum retail price of gasoline and diesel in provinces, autonomous regions, cities and central cities

Unit: yuan / ton

	I. areas with one province and one price
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Beijing	10415	9355
Tianjin	10380	9320
Hebei Province	10380	9320
Shanxi province	10450	9375
Liaoning province	10380	9320
Jilin Province	10380	9320
Heilongjiang province	10380	9320
Shanghai	10395	9325
Jiangsu Province	10435	9360
Zhejiang Province	10435	9375
Anhui province	10430	9370
Fujian Province	10455	9385
Jiangxi province	10435	9380
Shandong province	10390	9330
Hubei province	10405	9345
Hunan Province	10445	9405
Henan province	10400	9340
Hainan province	10525	9455
Chongqing	10595	9530
Guangdong province	10460	9390
Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous region	10525	9455
Ningxia Hui Autonomous region	10385	9320
Gansu province	10365	9340
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous region	10160	9215
II. Areas with one province and one price will not be implemented for the time being
	Gasoline (standard)	Diesel oil (standard)
Hohhot	10395	9335
Chengdu city	10600	9555
Guiyang city	10560	9480
Kunming City	10590	9510
Xi'an city	10365	9330
Xining City	10345	9365

                                                                

Note: 1. The prices in the table include consumption tax, value-added tax, urban construction tax and additional education fees.

2. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil in the table are in line with the compulsory national standards of VIB and Ⅵ in the sixth stage.

3. The sixth stage standard of gasoline and diesel is gasoline and No. 0 vehicle diesel respectively.

4. The prices of gasoline and diesel oil that meet the quality standards of the sixth stage for the national reserve and the Xinjiang production and Construction Corps are 9650 yuan and 8590 yuan per ton respectively, and other relevant oil price policies shall be implemented in accordance with the provisions of the measures for Oil Price Management.