Methanol: Methanol market is mixed and operators operate cautiously

On October 20, the methanol market price index was 2261.64, up 1.21 from yesterday and 0.05 per cent higher than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 19:

China CFR 278-282 US dollars / ton, up 1 US dollars / ton

European FOB 305.25-306.25 euros / ton, up 7.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 95-97 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $345-346 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2100 (0), Lunan: 2380-2400 (- 30), Henan: 2310-2335 (10), Shanxi: 2240-2280 (0), Port: & nbsp;2425-2450 (15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-280 (10ax 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 250-320 (10ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 100-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 220-230 (40max 30)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is mixed, the futures market is volatile, the supply side of the Chinese market is reduced due to equipment maintenance, the price is supported to a certain extent, the demand side fluctuates, and the purchasing mood in the lower reaches is mediocre. The transaction atmosphere in China is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable, with 2070-2100 yuan / ton on the north line and 2050-2060 yuan / ton on the south line, and the low end is stable. at present, many devices in the field are stopped and overhauled, coupled with the news of methanol mining outside the olefin, some enterprises continue to sell at a high price, and the deal is general. Follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market mixed, southern Shandong 2380-2400 yuan / ton, low-end down 30 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2350 yuan / ton, low-end up 20 yuan / ton, the current market trading is temporarily stable, downstream rigid demand procurement. Today's market bidding price is around 2350-2390 yuan / ton, including Jincheng Petrochemical methanol bidding price of 2390 yuan / ton, Shenchi Chemical Industry 2350 yuan / ton. Prices in North China are stable and small, including 2240-2280 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2260-2320 yuan / ton in Hebei, low-end stability, downstream rigid demand procurement, general transaction atmosphere. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2400-2500 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2330-2460 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with stable low end. at present, the market negotiation is flat, the terminal rigid demand is purchased, and the transaction is stable. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot selling gives profit to the goods, buying a small amount of rigid demand, the transaction is limited. Long-term unilateral high sell low suction, the basis is weak; afternoon atmosphere stalemate. The exchange of goods has continued to be active in recent months. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2440-2450, base difference 01: 10 prime 15: 10 transaction: 2445-2470, base difference 01: 23 pound 27: 11 transaction: 2460-2475, base difference 01: 33 prime 35.

Future forecast: the recent cost support is limited, the overall market sentiment is weak, many new maintenance devices have been added in the field, and methanol plants such as Jiutai, Shanxi Bianyang, Qinghai Zhonghao, Guizhou Chitianhua and other methanol plants have been stopped and overhauled one after another. in addition, some enterprises actively adjust prices and shipments, Chinese inventory is slightly removed from the warehouse, the supply pressure is alleviated, there is a certain support for methanol price, and the port inventory is narrowly removed under the consumption of rigid demand during the week. Short-term supply in China may continue to shrink, pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. From the point of view of demand, the start-up performance of the downstream of the terminal is different, chloride has planned maintenance, MTBE and acetic acid have been restarted, the load of olefin plant in Qinghai Salt Lake has increased, the start-up of olefin industry has maintained a high level, and the demand side has increased steadily as a whole, but at present, the inventory of raw materials in some downstream factories is on the high side, traders and downstream receiving sentiment is general, still give priority to rigid demand replenishment, demand has no obvious volume for the time being. Follow up the downstream Changzhou Fude MTO parking situation. At present, the macro and cost support is limited, the supply in China is reduced, the demand side drive is limited, the cautious wait-and-see mentality of the operators in the market remains, and the short-term methanol market price is expected to be arranged in a narrow range. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, olefin production, as well as crude oil and coal prices.