PVC: Futures 'upside broke through the prefix 6, partial closure of short positions, and slight upward repair of spot positions

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October 20, 2023, 4:28 PM

PVC futures analysis: October 20 V2401 contract opening price: 5939, highest price: 6027, lowest price: 5927, position: 923266, settlement price: 5980, yesterday settlement: 5904, down: 76, daily trading volume: 1163040 lots, precipitated capital: 3.869 billion, capital outflow: 154 million.

List of comprehensive prices by region: yuan / ton

Area	Price 10.19	Price 10.20	Rise and fall	Remarks
North China	5680-5730	5730-5800	50/70	Send to cash remittance
East China	5750-5840	5850-5920	100/80	Cash out of the warehouse
South China	5850-5900	5930-5980	80/80	Cash out of the warehouse
Northeast China	5700-5900	5700-5900	0/0	Send to cash remittance
Central China	5760-5830	5800-5830	40/0	Send to cash remittance
Southwest	5550-5700	5600-5700	50/0	Send to cash remittance

PVC spot market: China PVC market mainstream transaction prices have risen, regional prices slightly repaired. Compared with the valuation, North China rose 50-70 yuan / ton, East China 80-100 yuan / ton, South China 80 yuan / ton, Northeast China stable, Central China 40 yuan / ton, Southwest China 50 yuan / ton. The ex-factory prices of upstream PVC production enterprises mainly remained stable, and some enterprises began to tentatively increase by 50 yuan / ton, including a small increase in ethylene enterprises. The price of futures opened low and went higher, showing a certain upward trend. The price of traders in various regions was raised yesterday, but the price advantage of the basis offer gradually disappeared. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high. Among them, East China base offer 01 contract-(50-100-150), South China 01 contract-(0-50-100), North 01 contract-(420-520), Southwest 01 contract-(250). Looking at today's spot market as a whole, some hedgers receive goods, but they still have a general trading atmosphere unilaterally, with a strong wait-and-see mentality downstream, conflicting with high prices and replenishing goods at low prices.

From the perspective of futures: & the night price of nbsp; PVC2401 contract opened low and rose high, and the price began to fluctuate after a slight rise. At the beginning of morning trading, the price further rose to break through the 6-word prefix, fell slightly after the highest point of 6027, and then began to fluctuate in the relative position in the afternoon. 2401 contracts range from 5927 to 6027 throughout the day, with a spread of 100,001 and an increase of 44729 positions, with 923266 hands held so far. The 2405 contract closed at 6088, with 106645 positions.

PVC Future Forecast:

Futures: PVC2401 contract prices showed a small rebound trend, futures prices successfully broke through the prefix 6, but the market appeared to reduce positions, considering part of the short order profit-taking. And the reduction of positions for two consecutive days is relatively large, trading statistics are still slightly better with short opening. On the one hand, the operation of futures prices did not continue to decline on the basis of large volume near Friday, there are some short-term short-term short positions to consider, the small rebound in futures prices is not caused by more than opening. At midday, the main Chinese futures contracts were up and down, with SC crude oil, Hujin, methanol, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) and polyvinyl chloride (PVC) up more than 1 per cent. On the whole, the short-term operation of futures prices may continue to test the position of the prefix 6, but the range above is expected to narrow, so watch out for the return of short positions.

Spot: recent spot market transactions have always maintained a light atmosphere, today's futures market rose slightly caused some hedgers to take the goods, from the basis point of view of the current point of hedging can lock in part of the profit, but there is hardly optimism to speak of. PVC fundamentals, calcium carbide prices continue to decline 50 yuan / ton, supply and demand still do not see more variables, exports maintain, the current monthly export volume and China's high inventory are consensus. However, today's performance of the two cities is OK, in the weak mood, PVC rarely shows a certain rebound trend, but the trading logic of the two cities is not stable, so it is treated with caution. Prices in the international crude oil futures market rose on the outside as traders remained nervous that Israeli military action in Gaza could escalate into a regional conflict. However, fears of an embargo on Israel have eased and the United States will relax sanctions on Venezuela, limiting the increase. On the whole, the spot market will continue to adjust by a small margin in the short term.

PVC spread arbitrage analysis:

Arbitrage Analysis of PVC spread
PVC	Contract price difference	Price 10.19	Price 10.20	Rate of change
	V2401 collection	5938	5987	49
	Average spot price in East China	5795	5885	90
	Average spot price in South China	5875	5955	80
	PVC2401 basis difference	-143	-102	41
	V2405 collection	6044	6088	44
	V2401-2405 closed	-106	-101	5
	PP2401 collection	7434	7441	7
	Plastic L2401 collection	7939	7954	15
	V--PP basis difference	-1496	-1454	42
	Vmure-L basis difference of plastics	-2001	-1967	34

China PVC Index: according to Tuduoduo data, the Chinese calcium carbide PVC spot index was 5840.73, Zhang 61.63, with a range of 1.066%. The ethylene method PVC spot index is 6122.92, Zhang 14.25, the range is 0.233%, the calcium carbide method index rises, the ethylene method index rises, the ethylene method-calcium carbide method index price difference is 282.19.

PVC warehouse receipt daily:

Variety	Warehouse / branch warehouse	10.19 warehouse receipts	10.20 warehouse orders	change
Polyvinyl chloride	China Reserve shares	843	843	0
	Guangzhou materials	441	441	0
	China Central Reserve Nanjing	402	402	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Cosco sea logistics	274	274	0
	Zhenjiang Middle and far Sea	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang International Trade	2,417	2,417	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Peak supply chain	1,343	1,343	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangyin Xiefeng	1,329	1,329	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Benniu Port, Changzhou	9,269	9,269	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Hangzhou port logistics	153	153	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Zhengsheng	1,844	1,844	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Changxing, Zhejiang	120	120	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Jiangsu Yanjin	3,162	3,162	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Benniu Port)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Xiamen Xiangyu (Shanghai Xiangyu)	230	230	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Benniu Port)	298	298	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Zhejiang tomorrow (Zhejiang International Trade)	149	149	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Benniu Port)	450	450	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Products Zhongda Chemical Industry (Railway Changxing)	300	300	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Yongan Capital (Benniu Port)	1,200	1,200	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty petrochemical (Benniu Port)	2,399	2,399	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Specialty Petrochemical (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,800	1,800	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sino-Thai Duojing (Zhejiang International Trade)	1,238	1,238	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Sinotrans East China	274	274	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Benniu Port)	600	600	0
Polyvinyl chloride	Tiantai International Trade (Zhejiang Jianfeng)	0	7	7
PVC subtotal		29,992	29,999	7
Total		29,992	29,999	7