Methanol: Futures rebound from low levels in China's trading atmosphere has improved

On October 19th, the methanol market price index was 2263.05, down 4.95 from yesterday, down 0.22% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 18:

China CFR 277-281 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 298-299 euros / ton, up 1.75 euros / ton

Us FOB 95-97 cents per gallon, up 8.5 cents per gallon

CFR in Southeast Asia was US $345-US $346 per ton, down US $9 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2100 (10), Lunan: 2430 (0), Henan: 2300-2320 (0), Shanxi: 2240-2280 (0), Port: & nbsp;2410-2445 (- 40)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 200-280 (10ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-200 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the futures market fluctuates upward, the supply-side devices in the Chinese market change frequently, and the good news boosts the market mood to a certain extent, the demand-side drive is relatively limited, and the market atmosphere has improved. The transaction is more smooth. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially raised, with 2070-2100 yuan / ton on the north line and 10 yuan / ton on the low end. At present, the inventory pressure in the field is not great, some news of methanol production has come out, the enterprise quotation has been raised, and the auction transaction is relatively smooth. Follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market is stable and small, southern Shandong 2430 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2330-2340 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market trading is temporarily stable, downstream rigid demand procurement. Prices in North China have been partially reduced, of which Shanxi quoted 2240-2280 yuan / ton, low-end stable, Hebei quoted price 2260-2310 yuan / ton, low-end down 20 yuan / ton, downstream rigid demand procurement, the transaction atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2400-2500 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2330-2460 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing. The low end is stable. At present, the market inquiry is good, the terminal rigid demand is purchased, and the transaction is stable. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rebounded slightly today. Spot demand is limited. With the rise of futures, the number of paper goods selling increased, the delivery was cautious, the basis stabilized and weakened, and the exchange continued in recent months. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: 10, transaction price: 2420-2450, base difference 01: 2510, basis difference: 2425-2450, basis difference: 01: 27, margin: 30, transaction price: 2455, basis difference: 01: 35, transaction price: 2440-2455, basis difference: 01: 38: 40.

Future forecast: from the point of view of supply: at present, there are both overhaul and restart of the equipment in the field, the early parking devices such as Rongxin Phase I, Yanzhou Mining Guojiao, Gu and Baitai have been restored one after another, and the main producing area markets in Xinjiang Zhongtai and Jiutai have stopped for overhaul. part of the equipment is stored and overhauled, and the news of methanol extraction from some olefins outside the field has been reported, which has given some support to the methanol price, and the market atmosphere has also been boosted. At present, the start-up of the Chinese market is still high. The spot supply is still sufficient, pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. On the demand side: the traditional downstream start-up performance is different, Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant load increases, olefin industry starts to grow, the demand side as a whole, but the current part of downstream plant raw material inventory is high, traders and downstream pick-up sentiment in general, still give priority to rigid demand replenishment, demand is not obvious volume, follow-up attention to the downstream Changzhou Fude MTO parking. At present, the macro and cost support is limited, there is good news from the supply side, the futures market sentiment is boosted by the rise in the futures market, there is no obvious demand for the time being, the cautious wait-and-see mentality of the operators in the market remains, and it is expected that the methanol market price will be arranged within a narrow range in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy, the external production of olefins, as well as the prices of crude oil and coal.