Methanol: Futures market fluctuated at a low level, China's trading atmosphere was general

On October 18, the methanol market price index was 2268, down 3.26 from yesterday, down 0.14% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 17:

China's CFR ranges from US $281 to US $285 per ton, down US $6 per ton

European FOB 296.25-297.25 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $354-355 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2060-2100 (- 10), Lunan: 2430 (0), Henan: 2300-2310 (- 10), Shanxi: 2240-2280 (40), Port: & nbsp;2450-2505 (- 45)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 190-280 (0ax 10), South Line-North Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-170 (- 10max 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 180-200 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is weak, the spot price volatility is 10-60 yuan / ton, the futures market volatility is weak, many equipment on the supply side of the Chinese market are overhauled, but the overall situation is still high, the start-up of the demand side is on the high side, and the operators in the market operate cautiously and the trading atmosphere is general. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the northern line quoted at 2060-2100 yuan / ton and the low end down by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the inventory pressure on the market is not great, there is good news on the supply side, supporting the sales of some enterprises at a high price, and some of the auctions are OK. Follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with 2430 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2330-2340 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the mindset of market operators is different, and there is a rigid demand for procurement downstream. The price in North China has been partially raised, including 2240-2280 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 40 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2280-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end and rigid demand downstream, and the transaction atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China are stable, including 2400-2500 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2330-2460 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing. The low end is stable. At present, the market inquiry is good, the terminal rigid demand is purchased, and the transaction is stable. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated low today. There are few spot negotiations and the transaction is limited. Paper arbitrage merchants are active in shipping, unilateral low-order enquiries, cautious arbitrage delivery, weak and stable basis. Small volume of overall transactions throughout the day. Taicang main port transaction price: 10, transaction price: 2410-2445, base difference 01 "25 prime 35, base difference 10: 2415-2445, base difference 01" 25 pound 35, transaction 11: 2420-2450, base difference 01 "35 prime 40.

In the future, it is predicted that the coal price is weak and stable in the near future, the cost support is poor, and the equipment in the field is overhauled and restarted. During the week, the devices in Zhongtai, Shanxi Bianyang and Jiutai are stopped and overhauled, Zhongxin and other devices are reduced, and some devices are stored and overhauled. The local supply is good and has some support to the price, but the early parking devices such as Hebi Coal, Ningxia Kunpeng, Rongxin Phase I and Yanzhou Mining Guojiao have been restored one after another. Gu he Baitai, Shanghai and Mongolia Energy and other devices are expected to restart. At present, the start-up of the Chinese market is still on the high side, and the spot supply is still ample. In terms of demand, the traditional downstream start-up performance varies, and the olefin industry maintains high start-up. Tianjin Bohua and Qinghai Salt Lake olefin units operate stably after restart, and the demand side is generally good, but at present, the inventory of raw materials in some downstream factories is on the high side, and the mood of traders and downstream receiving goods is general. It is still dominated by rigid demand replenishment, and there is no obvious volume of demand for the time being. in the later stage, we need to pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and load changes. At present, the macro and cost aspects are not good, the futures market falls sharply after the low shock, the fundamental drive is relatively limited, the long and short factors affect the market mentality, the market operators are mostly bearish on the future, and the cautious wait-and-see mentality is obvious. it is expected that the price of methanol market will fluctuate weakly in the short term, and we need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal in the later stage.