Daily Review of Urea: Factories are ready to support downstream demand, flat market atmosphere is deadlocked (October 18)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 18 was 2,469.23, up 0.77 from yesterday, up 0.03% month-on-month, and down 4.12% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2120, the highest price is 2179, the lowest price is 2109, the settlement price is 2144, and the closing price is 2174. The closing price is up 60% compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 2.84%. The daily fluctuation range is 2109-2179, and the price difference is 70; The 01 contract has increased its position by 31251 lots today, and so far, it has held 353760 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market price rose slightly. Currently, the quotations of most manufacturers are relatively stable. The ex-factory quotations of some manufacturers are still raised. The overall urea market price is in a state of consolidation.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been raised to 2,440 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in North China have been lowered to 2,250 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in the northwest region are stable at 2,410 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,380 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China have stabilized at 2,360 - 2,440 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,380 - 2,620 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has been raised to 2,530 - 2,560 yuan/ton. Prices in South China have stabilized at 2,520 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the current urea market supply remains high, and the market supply is sufficient at this stage. In terms of manufacturers, urea manufacturers have increased their quotations this week. Affected by the excessive price increase, market transactions have slowed down. However, most manufacturers have accumulated a certain amount of pending orders in the early stage, and have no pressure on shipments in a short period of time, and have a strong attitude towards prices. In terms of corporate inventories, the current total inventory of urea companies has decreased by about 10% compared with last week. Affected by better receipts in the previous period, corporate inventories have decreased. Currently, there is no significant pressure on factory inventories. On the demand side, downstream resistance to high prices is gradually evident. In addition, there is no other demand in the market except for autumn planting farmers, which has temporarily negative impact on the demand side. In terms of the market, there is still support for Shanxi's production restrictions and printing and labeling news, and the two jointly maintain the current firm urea price.

Overall, the urea market is currently in a game between manufacturers. Most manufacturers are supported by news of preparations and labeling. Demand from downstream traders is sluggish. It is expected that the urea market price will remain consolidated in a short period of time.