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Caustic soda: The rebound in futures prices is insufficient, the power of long and short positions is equal, and spot prices fall regionally

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October 18, 2023, 3:53 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 18 SH2405 contract opening price: 2571, highest price: 2604, lowest price: 2563, spread: 41, position: 101662, reduced position: 2294, settlement price: 2585, yesterday settlement: 2605, down: 20, closing price: 2584, daily trading volume: 206359 hands, precipitated capital: 1.891 billion, capital outflow: 314.5 billion.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October seventeenth

October eighteenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-1024

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

930-1030

930-1000

0/-30

-

Hebei

990-1030

960-1000

-30/-30

Ex-factory price

South China

1080-1350

1080-1350

0/0

Can price

Shandong

910-990

900-990

-10/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1130-1150

1120-1150

-10/0

-

Jiangsu Province

890-980

890-980

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

3200-3300

3200-3300

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

900-970

900-970

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1530-1630

1530-1630

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1630-1640

1630-1640

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1530-1570

1530-1570

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3300-3400

3300-3400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3550-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1500-1640

1500-1640

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today China's caustic soda market shows a regional downward trend, the market transaction price range in some areas has moved down, the trading atmosphere in various regions is poor, the liquid caustic soda market has moved steadily, a few have fallen sporadically, and the transaction price in the tablet caustic soda market has fallen in most areas. Today, the prices in some areas of the liquid alkali market have fallen slightly, and the markets in most regions are mainly cautious and wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere is general. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali has dropped by 10-30 yuan per ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. Enterprise inventory in individual areas is at a high level, affected by downstream conflict with high-price supply, poor enthusiasm for receiving goods, poor enterprise shipping, so lowering shipping prices to promote shipments; general shipments of enterprises in some areas, coupled with the impact of price reduction in the main producing areas, prices are also weak and falling mainly. The overall trend of the market in most other regions has not changed much. Although there are some differences in supply and demand among different regions, the market in the region is relatively stable. People in various regional industries wait and see mainly on the market, and the operation of entering the market is more cautious. Upstream production enterprises in Shandong area manufacturers adjust the ex-factory quotation, most enterprises in other areas have not adjusted the ex-factory quotation, the price adjustment mentality is more cautious. Today, the transaction price center of gravity in most areas of the tablet alkali market has moved downward, the range is mostly 50 yuan / ton, the ex-factory quotation of tablet alkali is high and fluctuating, the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream of the high-price supply is not high, the enterprise shipping is not smooth, and the merchants in some areas have lowered the shipping price. the market transaction price center of gravity moves down mainly. The market mentality is weak, and the enthusiasm of entering the market is not high.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:    caustic soda SH2405 contract night trading price showed an upward trend, futures prices rose to the highest point of the day 2604 after the end of the day slightly lower; early trading opening price down, and then fluctuated near the 2578 line; afternoon trading did not see a big market, maintaining the morning shock trend. Today's trading volume: 18.4% more, 17.6% empty; 20.9% more than 19.4% flat.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index fell by 2.1% to 2993.37, down 64.22%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: caustic soda SH2405 contract night market reversal, long entry is obvious, by the end of the night trading opened 18.4% more than empty 17.6% of the disk support is obvious, but the disk guidance is insufficient, the rebound is limited, and the daily market is more volatile. As of the close of trading this afternoon: 18.9% more open 24.5% of the air forces are almost the same. Poor performance at the technical level, KD line and MACD line still show a dead fork trend. Spot: caustic soda spot market is currently more bearish to the future, upstream production enterprises still have inventory, most equipment start-up is stable, market supply is relatively sufficient, pre-maintenance equipment recovery and later maintenance offset, downstream enterprises take goods in general, maintain rigid demand to purchase low replenishment, cost stability, lack of market guidance, fundamentals show weakness as a whole. It is expected that the caustic soda market may be vulnerable in the short term.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October seventeenth

October eighteenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

100-150

100-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

100-200

100-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, on October 18, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 368.89, up 0%, and China's liquid chlorine index was stable.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: