Methanol: Negative sentiment affected methanol futures fell sharply in the afternoon

On October 17, the methanol market price index was 2271.26, up 4.83 from yesterday, up 0.21% from a month earlier.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 16:

China CFR 287-289 US dollars / ton, up 3 US dollars / ton

European FOB 294.25-295.25 euros / ton, down 0.25 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $354-355 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (0), North Route: & nbsp;2070-2130 (20), Lunan: 2430 (0), Henan: 2310-2330 (- 10), Shanxi: 2200-2270 (0), Port: & nbsp;2495-2515 (0)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 190-270 (0ram 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 180-200 (20gamble 20)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot price fluctuates within a range of 10-20 yuan / ton, the futures market plunges sharply in the afternoon, the supply and demand side of the Chinese market is in a higher position, the operators in the market are cautious, and the main transaction is to buy to fill the gap. Local transactions are relatively smooth. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas have moved steadily, with the price quoted on the north line ranging from 2070 yuan to 2130 yuan per ton, and the low end has been raised by 20 yuan per ton. at present, the inventory pressure in the field is not great, the downstream replenishment atmosphere is not as expected, and some buying orders meet bargain and fill gaps, and the transaction situation is OK. Follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices have been partially raised, with southern Shandong 2430 yuan / ton, low-end stability, northern Shandong 2330-2340 yuan / ton, and low-end increase of 20 yuan / ton. at present, the mindset of workers in the market is different, and there is a rigid demand for procurement downstream. Today's market bidding price is around 2330-2380 yuan / ton, including 2380 yuan / ton for methanol from Jincheng Petrochemical, 2340 yuan / ton for Shenchi Chemical Industry and 2330 yuan / ton for Lihuayi. The price in North China is stable, including 2200-2270 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2280-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei, the low end is stable, the downstream rigid demand procurement, the enterprise transaction is smooth. Prices in southwest China have been partially lowered, of which Yungui quotation is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, low-end price is stable, Sichuan-Chongqing price is 2330-2460 yuan / ton, and the low-end price is reduced by 20 yuan / ton. at present, the negotiations in the market are flat, some of the auction focus is higher, and the terminal rigid demand is buying. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures fluctuated in the morning and fell in the afternoon. Spot a small amount of rigid demand. The paper order side meets the high shipment positively, the arbitrage merchant takes the initiative to let the interest to ship the goods, the basis weakens obviously. Overall transaction volume. Taicang main port transaction price: 10, transaction price: 2450-2505, base difference 01: 28 position 35, base difference: 2455-2510, base difference 01: 30, margin 45: 11, basis: 2500, base difference 01: 45, transaction price: 2460-2520, basis difference: 01: 40, margin: 53, transaction: 2490, basis difference: 01, 55bank, 60.

Future forecast: in the near future, the macro aspect is not good for the time being, and the cost support is poor. At present, the start-up of the Chinese market is still on the high side. The products are stable after the coal chemical units of Shilin and Hebi in Inner Mongolia have been restarted, and the load of the first phase of Rongxin plant is increasing. Shanxi Manyang and Jiutai units are planned to be overhauled during the week, Yanzhou Mining Guojiao, Shanghai and Mongolia Energy and other devices are expected to be stored and restarted, and China's spot supply is still sufficient, from the demand point of view. The terminal downstream market starts up steadily, Tianjin Bohua and Qinghai Salt Lake olefin units operate stably after restart, the olefin industry maintains high start-up, and the overall demand shows an upward trend, but at present, downstream factory inventory is on the high side, traders and downstream rigid demand replenishment is the main, coupled with the recent futures market low shock, affecting the mentality of market operators, demand is not obvious volume. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and the change of load. At present, the macro and cost support is general, the fundamental drive is relatively limited, the market operators have different views on the future, the cautious wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and it is expected that the price of methanol market will fluctuate in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.