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Caustic soda: Futures prices hit a new low, with a significant increase in positions and a significant tendency to open positions, and most spot prices fell

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October 17, 2023, 3:51 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 17 SH2405 contract opening price: 2650, highest price: 2655, lowest price: 2561, spread: 94, position: 103956, increase: 23082, settlement price: 2605, yesterday settlement: 2673, down: 68, closing price: 2569, daily trading volume: 298316 hands, precipitated capital: 1.923 billion, capital inflow: 375 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October sixteenth

October seventeenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-1024

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

930-1050

930-1030

0/-20

-

Hebei

1020-1050

990-1030

-30/-20

Ex-factory price

South China

1080-1350

1080-1350

0/0

Can price

Shandong

930-1030

910-990

-20/-40

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1150-1180

1130-1150

-20/-30

-

Jiangsu Province

890-1080

890-980

0/-100

Delivery price

Tianjin

3300-3400

3200-3300

-100/-100

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

1020-1050

900-970

-120/-80

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1590-1750

1530-1630

-60/-120

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1710-1740

1630-1640

-80/-100

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1560-1670

1530-1570

-30/-100

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3650-3700

3300-3400

-350/-300

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3550-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1500-1640

1500-1640

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today China's caustic soda market shows a weak downward trend, prices in most areas have fallen to varying degrees, the market trading atmosphere is poor, and some markets maintain a wait-and-see mood. Today, there is an obvious decline in most areas of the liquid alkali market, and the trading atmosphere in the market is weak. From the point of view of the price adjustment in various regions, 32% of the ionic membrane alkali has dropped 20-120 yuan / ton, 50% of the ionic membrane alkali has dropped 30-350 yuan / ton, and the prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The downward adjustment of the purchase price of alumina downstream of the main force is bad for the market, affected by the downward adjustment of the purchase price of liquid alkali downstream of the main force, the market mentality is dragged down, the transaction price of the market in the main producing area falls mainly, and the market in some areas is affected by the downward trend of the main producing area, the price falls accordingly; the situation of receiving goods downstream in some areas is poor, and there is a feeling of resistance to high prices, the shipping situation of chlor-alkali enterprises is not ideal, and the market transaction price center of gravity moves down. The overall trend of the market in other regions has not changed much. Although there are some differences between supply and demand in different regions, the market in the region is relatively stable. People in all regional industries wait and see the market mainly, and the operation of entering the market is more cautious. Upstream production enterprises manufacturers in some areas adjust ex-factory quotations, Shandong, East China downgrade enterprises in the majority, most enterprises in other areas have not adjusted ex-factory quotations, price adjustment mentality is more cautious. Today, there is no obvious change in the tablet alkali market, just on the day when the new order price is announced, all manufacturers wait and see the market carefully, there is no obvious price adjustment, the pre-sale of manufacturers is normal, the start of the plant is relatively stable, and the downstream demand maintains rigid demand procurement. The enthusiasm of businessmen to enter the market is general, and most of them continue to wait and see the market.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:   SH2405 contract surface hit a new low, night trading low open concussion downward, morning futures prices fluctuated near the 2592 line, afternoon prices fluctuated downwards, increasing positions are more obvious, especially late trading prices hit a new low of 2561. Today's trading situation: 18.9% more than open 24.5%; empty 18.7% more than 18.4%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index fell by 2.1% to 2993.37, down 64.22%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: the daily volume of caustic soda SH2405 contract soared by 23082 hands, the market position once increased to more than 100000 hands, and the futures price hit a new low today; short opening of 24.5% compared with 18.9% more, the short sentiment is obviously heavier; the Mandarin Commodity Index is down, and the commodity sentiment is weak. The technical level shows that the opening of the three tracks of the Bollinger belt (13, 13, 2) continues downward, the KD line and MACD line at the daily level still show dead forks, and the trend of dead forks has increased, and there may still be downward pressure on short-term prices. Spot: after an alumina factory in Shandong announced a reduction in the purchase price of liquid alkali yesterday, the price in Shandong area fell in an all-round way today. The supply front maintenance equipment is expected to resume, at the same time, there are still planned maintenance devices, the supply side as a whole or showing regional changes, the overall supply fabric is still relatively sufficient; the demand side downstream demand overall maintain rigid demand procurement-based, basically negative in the face of the market. In terms of market mentality, most operators are lack of confidence in the future and are bearish on the spot market for caustic soda. As a whole, it is expected that short-term caustic soda prices will continue to operate under pressure.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October sixteenth

October seventeenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

100-150

100-150

0/0

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

200-300

300-400

100/100

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

150-200

100-200

-50/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 8.33%, or 2.31%, to 368.89 on October 17, while China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: