Daily Review of Urea: Printing news and waiting to support stable price consolidation and operation (October 17)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 17 was 2,468.45, up 2.73 from yesterday, up 0.11% month-on-month, and down 4.30% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2105, the highest price is 2142, the lowest price is 2086, the settlement price is 2114, and the closing price is 2110. The closing price is down 15 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 0.71% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2086-2142, and the price difference is 56; the 01 contract has increased its position by 3785 lots today, and so far, it has held 322509 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to rise, but the overall increase has narrowed. Most manufacturers 'ex-factory quotations are more stable and pushing up. Currently, prices are mostly supported by printed labels, making it difficult for prices to fall.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,420 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,280 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China rose to 2,410 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,380 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,360 - 2,440 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China has stabilized at 2,380 - 2,620 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles has stabilized at 2,520 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,520 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, new production capacity is still being released one after another, and sufficient supply continues at this stage. On the enterprise side, most companies are ready to support and have a strong attitude towards prices. As prices continue to rise this week, the number of new orders in some urea factories has decreased significantly. On the demand side, we are currently in the off-season of demand, and the market needs are limited. With the rise in prices this week, downstream market buying sentiment has declined, so we should be cautious and wait and see. In terms of cost, the peak period of coal consumption in winter is approaching, and coal costs may become one of the major factors supporting urea prices in the future.

On the whole, although the supply and demand of the urea market are strong at this stage, the price changes this week are mostly affected by the bid opening on Friday. In addition, there is currently support from companies in a short period of time, and it is expected that the urea market price will operate firmly.