Methanol: Futures market fluctuated higher, Chinese market consolidated within a narrow range

On October 16th, the methanol market price index was 2266.43, which was 6.52 lower than that of the previous working day and 0.29% lower than that of the previous working day.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 13:

China CFR 284-286USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 294.5-295.5 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia ranged from US $354 to US $355 per ton, down US $2 per ton.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (- 20), Northern Route: & nbsp;2050-2130 (- 20), Lunan: 2430 (0), Henan: 2320-2330 (0), Shanxi: 2200-2270 (0), Port: & nbsp;2495-2515 (25)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 190-270 (- 10 Uniqure 10), South Line-North Shandong 240-320 (0 amp 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 110-170 (20 pm 20), Guanzhong-Southwestern Shandong 160-220 (0 amp 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, and the spot price fluctuates within a range of 10-60 yuan / ton. after the futures market plunges, the supply in the Chinese market is still sufficient, the inventory pressure of production enterprises is not great, and the demand performance is relatively stable. the overall deal is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is reduced in a narrow range, with a price of 2050-2130 yuan / ton in the north line, 20 yuan / ton in the low end, 2200-2230 yuan / ton in Guanzhong area, and 20 yuan / ton in the low end. Shaanxi Changqing methanol was lowered twice this week: 2230 yuan / ton for large single price and 2240 yuan / ton for small one. The methanol plant of the plant runs stably, and the inventory pressure in the plant is not great at present. During the restart and load improvement of Shilin plant in Inner Mongolia, some production enterprises lowered their quotations for shipment, purchased the rigid demand downstream, and followed up to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable and small, with 2430 yuan / ton in southern Shandong and 2310-2320 yuan / ton in northern Shandong. The low end is stable. At present, the mindset of market operators is different, and there is a rigid demand for procurement downstream. Prices in North China are stable, including 2200-2270 yuan / ton in Shanxi and 2280-2350 yuan / ton in Hebei. The low end is stable, operators at the beginning of the week wait and see, and the downstream replenishment atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China remain stable, including 2400-2500 yuan / ton for Yungui and 2350-2460 yuan / ton for Sichuan and Chongqing, with low-end stabilities. at present, negotiations are general in the field, and some terminal rigid demand is purchased, and more wait-and-see mood is maintained. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures rose after consolidation today. Spot quotation is sparse, rigid demand procurement. Long-term a small number of unilateral high shipments, buy arbitrage, the basis stabilized slightly weaker, the exchange continues in recent months. The overall transaction throughout the day is not bad. Taicang main port transaction price: 10 middle deal: 2495-2515, base difference 01x 40max 45x 10 times deal: 2475-2525, base spread 01m 50pm 55x 11s deal: 2510-2525, base difference 01x 55max 58.

Future forecast: the recent weak operation of coal prices, affected by the reduction of pull and transport vehicles, the coal market mood is poor, and the cost end support has weakened. Due to the early parking and overhaul of many devices, China's supply has been slightly reduced, but on the whole, the start-up of the Chinese market is still on the high side. Recently, the coal chemical plants of Shilin and Hebi in Inner Mongolia have been restarted, and Yanzhou Mining National Coke, Rongxin Phase I, Shanghai and Mongolia Energy and other devices are expected to restart within the week. Spot supply inventory increment is expected, from the demand point of view, the terminal downstream market starts up steadily, Tianjin Bohua and Qinghai Salt Lake olefin units operate steadily after restart, the olefin industry maintains high start-up, and the overall demand performance is good. However, at present, traders and downstream are mainly purchasing on demand, and the demand has not been significantly reduced for the time being. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and load changes. At present, the cost support is unstable, the fundamental drivers are relatively limited, both supply and demand are expected to increase, the market operators have different views on the future, the cautious wait-and-see mentality is obvious, and it is expected that the methanol market price will fluctuate in the short term. in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to macro policies as well as crude oil and coal prices.