Daily Review of Urea: Corporate sales pressure eased and prices rose with the trend (October 16)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 16 was 2,465.73, up 26.36 from last Friday, up 1.08% month-on-month, and down 4.82% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2121, the highest price is 2149, the lowest price is 2093, the settlement price is 2125, and the closing price is 2122. The closing price is 39 higher than the settlement price of the previous trading day, and the month-on-month increase is 1.87%. The daily fluctuation range is 2093-2149, and the price difference is 56; the 01 contract has reduced its position by 9814 lots today, and so far, it has held 318724 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices show an upward trend. Most urea companies 'ex-factory quotations are stable and rising today. Supported by pending orders and positive recent orders, the company's current sales pressure has temporarily eased.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have stabilized at 2,420 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in North China rose to 2,270 - 2,490 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,360 - 2,370 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China rose to 2,380 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China rose to 2,350 - 2,440 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China rose to 2,380 - 2,620 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles rose to 2,520 - 2,550 yuan/ton. Prices in South China rose to 2,530 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the current operating rate of enterprises remains high, and supply is sufficient at this stage. On the corporate side, with the continuous decline in market prices last week, the shipment situation of low-end sources has improved. Currently, corporate orders are receiving well, and the pressure on early sales has been slightly relieved. On the demand side, downstream demand is currently in the off-season. Most downstream traders mainly need to pick up goods and enter the market to purchase at low prices with multiple equivalent prices. The wait-and-see attitude continues. In terms of exports, it is rumored that export policies have been slightly loosened recently, and port inventories are currently showing a growing trend. However, the current shipping time has not yet been determined, and the specific export situation still needs continued attention.

On the whole, urea production will be at a high level for a long time, with transactions in the low-end market. Coupled with continuous export news, urea market prices are expected to stabilize and increase in a short period of time.