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Soda ash manufacturers 'inventories increase, market prices are weak and downward (10.12 Soda Ash Weekly Review)

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October 13, 2023, 5:54 PM

1. Analysis of China's soda ash market

After the holiday, the market price of soda ash fell collectively. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is more than 2,650 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton. This week, the start of soda ash companies remained stable, and the starting load of individual companies increased; Affected by the market, new orders signed by soda ash companies weakened after the holiday, manufacturers mainly delivered early orders, and some manufacturers increased soda ash inventories; In addition, due to weakening demand in some downstream industries, soda ash prices have stabilized and weakened. Downstream companies have cautious purchasing sentiments, and the market supply has increased. The weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change. Some market participants are bearish on the future outlook, and soda ash prices have been discussed alone.

 

Forecast for next week: The soda ash industry will remain at a high level, and companies will have no maintenance plans in the short term; downstream market demand is basically stable, but with the increase in supply, companies are not motivated to purchase, manufacturers 'inventories have risen, market spot prices are weak and downward, and the market mentality is more pessimistic, and it is expected that the soda ash market will remain weak in the short term.

 

2.  Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions

Unit: yuan/ton

areas

specifications

September 28

October 12

rise and fall

previous month

Northeast China

light soda ash

3300

2950

-350

-10.61%

heavy sodium carbonate

3375

3250

-125

-3.70%

in North China

light soda ash

3150

2900

-250

-7.94%

heavy sodium carbonate

3375

3175

-200

-5.93%

East China

light soda ash

3225

2900

-325

-10.08%

heavy sodium carbonate

3300

3100

-200

-6.06%

central China

light soda ash

3075

2750

-325

-10.57%

heavy sodium carbonate

3225

3075

-150

-4.65%

South China

light soda ash

3650

3150

-500

-13.70%

heavy sodium carbonate

3675

3300

-375

-10.20%

southwestern region

light soda ash

3350

3050

-300

-8.96%

heavy sodium carbonate

3500

3350

-150

-4.29%

northwestern region

light soda ash

2900

2675

-225

-7.76%

heavy sodium carbonate

3050

2875

-175

-5.74%

 

3. Soda ash process profit statement

As of October 12 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1565 yuan/ton, down 334 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 1230 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous week.

 

production process

September 28

October 12

Weekly ups and downs

rise and fall

combined alkali method

1899

1565

-334

-17.59%

ammonia-soda process

1460

1230

-230

-15.75%

 

 

4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises

This week, the soda ash industry started at 88%, an increase of 2% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 690,000 tons.

Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on October 12, 2023

process

enterprise name

production capacity

device condition

combined alkali method

Fujian Yaolong

40

Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined

Huainan Debang

60

On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined.

Haohua Junhua

60

The company's equipment was stopped for maintenance on October 7, and the recovery time was October 10

chlor-alkali process

Qinghai Fantou

140

On October 10, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was October 11

Kunlun Jianye

150

On October 10, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was October 11

 

5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory

The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 320,000 tons, compared with 280,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 40,000 tons, or 14.29%.