1. Analysis of China's soda ash market
After the holiday, the market price of soda ash fell collectively. As of now, the price of light soda ash in China is more than 2,650 - 3,100 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy soda ash is 3,000 - 3,200 yuan/ton. This week, the start of soda ash companies remained stable, and the starting load of individual companies increased; Affected by the market, new orders signed by soda ash companies weakened after the holiday, manufacturers mainly delivered early orders, and some manufacturers increased soda ash inventories; In addition, due to weakening demand in some downstream industries, soda ash prices have stabilized and weakened. Downstream companies have cautious purchasing sentiments, and the market supply has increased. The weakness of the soda ash market is difficult to change. Some market participants are bearish on the future outlook, and soda ash prices have been discussed alone.
Forecast for next week: The soda ash industry will remain at a high level, and companies will have no maintenance plans in the short term; downstream market demand is basically stable, but with the increase in supply, companies are not motivated to purchase, manufacturers 'inventories have risen, market spot prices are weak and downward, and the market mentality is more pessimistic, and it is expected that the soda ash market will remain weak in the short term.
2. Comparison of market prices of soda ash in regions
Unit: yuan/ton
areas |
specifications |
September 28 |
October 12 |
rise and fall |
previous month |
Northeast China |
light soda ash |
3300 |
2950 |
-350 |
-10.61% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3375 |
3250 |
-125 |
-3.70% |
|
in North China |
light soda ash |
3150 |
2900 |
-250 |
-7.94% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3375 |
3175 |
-200 |
-5.93% |
|
East China |
light soda ash |
3225 |
2900 |
-325 |
-10.08% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3300 |
3100 |
-200 |
-6.06% |
|
central China |
light soda ash |
3075 |
2750 |
-325 |
-10.57% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3225 |
3075 |
-150 |
-4.65% |
|
South China |
light soda ash |
3650 |
3150 |
-500 |
-13.70% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3675 |
3300 |
-375 |
-10.20% |
|
southwestern region |
light soda ash |
3350 |
3050 |
-300 |
-8.96% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3500 |
3350 |
-150 |
-4.29% |
|
northwestern region |
light soda ash |
2900 |
2675 |
-225 |
-7.76% |
heavy sodium carbonate |
3050 |
2875 |
-175 |
-5.74% |
3. Soda ash process profit statement
As of October 12 this week, the profit of the combined alkali method was 1565 yuan/ton, down 334 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of the ammonia-alkali method was 1230 yuan/ton, down 230 yuan/ton from the previous week.
production process |
September 28 |
October 12 |
Weekly ups and downs |
rise and fall |
combined alkali method |
1899 |
1565 |
-334 |
-17.59% |
ammonia-soda process |
1460 |
1230 |
-230 |
-15.75% |
4. Equipment maintenance of soda ash enterprises
This week, the soda ash industry started at 88%, an increase of 2% from last week. According to incomplete statistics, the output of soda ash manufacturers this week is about 690,000 tons.
Equipment maintenance list of soda ash enterprises on October 12, 2023 |
|||
process |
enterprise name |
production capacity |
device condition |
combined alkali method |
Fujian Yaolong |
40 |
Maintenance will start from September 11, 2022, and recovery time will be determined |
Huainan Debang |
60 |
On August 17, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was to be determined. |
|
Haohua Junhua |
60 |
The company's equipment was stopped for maintenance on October 7, and the recovery time was October 10 |
|
chlor-alkali process |
Qinghai Fantou |
140 |
On October 10, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was October 11 |
Kunlun Jianye |
150 |
On October 10, the company's equipment was stopped for maintenance, and the recovery time was October 11 |
5. Soda ash manufacturer inventory
The total inventory of Chinese soda ash manufacturers this week was 320,000 tons, compared with 280,000 tons last week, a month-on-month increase of 40,000 tons, or 14.29%.