Methanol: The methanol market is narrow, and transactions in China are average

On October 13, the methanol market price index was 2272.95, down 7.99 from yesterday and 0.35% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 12:

China CFR 284-286 US dollars / ton, up 4 US dollars / ton

European FOB 292.5-293.5 euros / ton, up 13.5 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $356-357 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2220-2250 (- 20), Northern Route: & nbsp;2070-2130 (0), Lunan: 2430 (0), Henan: 2320-2335 (0), Shanxi: 2200-2260 (0), Port: & nbsp;2470-2485 (35)

Freight:

North Route-200-280 (- 10amp 0), Southern Route-North Shandong 240-320 (0max 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 90-150 (- 10max Mel 10), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is arranged in a narrow range, the spot price fluctuates within a range of 20-50 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates, the supply in some parts of the Chinese market is reduced, and the price is slightly stronger, but the overall market atmosphere is weak. Downstream and traders are cautious in receiving goods, and the overall transaction is general. Specifically, the market prices in the main producing areas are mixed, the price on the north line is 2070-2130 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, the Guanzhong area is 2220-2250 yuan / ton, the lower end is reduced by 20 yuan / ton, the parking supply in Ningxia is slightly tight due to device failure, and some enterprises raise their quotations for shipments. in other areas, market shipments are general, more empty transactions, and follow-up attention to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices are stable, southern Shandong 2430 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2310 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current mentality of market operators are different, downstream rigid demand procurement. Today's market bidding price is around 2310-2350 yuan / ton, of which Shenchi chemical methanol bid price 2310 yuan / ton, Jincheng petrochemical 2350 yuan / ton. The price in North China has been partially reduced, of which Shanxi is quoted at 2200-2300 yuan / ton, the low end is stable, Hebei is quoted at 2280-2350 yuan / ton, and the low end is reduced by 70 yuan / ton. at present, the market atmosphere is light and the downstream replenishment atmosphere is general. Prices in southwest China remain stable, of which Yungui quoted 2400-2500 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2350-2460 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market negotiations are general, terminal demand is weak, the transaction is flat. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, the morning futures range fluctuated. The spot selling order is few, the rigid demand replenishment delivery. Long-term arbitrage negotiations mainly, a small amount of unilateral high sell low suction, the basis stabilized. The overall deal was average. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2460, basis MA01+30;10 transaction: 2470-2485, basis MA01+38/+40;10 transaction: 2480-2490, basis MA01+50/+55;11 transaction: 2485, basis MA01+50;11 transaction: 2490-2505, basis MA01+55/+60.

Future forecast: on the supply side: recently, there are new maintenance devices, such as Rongxin Phase I, Yanzhou Mining Guojiao, Ningxia Qinghua, Shanghai and Mongolia Energy, etc., at the same time, the previous maintenance devices have been restored one after another, and the overall maintenance of the Chinese market involves the loss of production capacity greater than the recovery capacity of the device, but the start of the Chinese market is still on the high side, coupled with the recent low volatility of the futures market, the mindset of the operators in the market is weak, and the market price has fallen somewhat. Inner Mongolia Shilin plans to produce products in the near future, Rongxin Phase I, Hebi coal methanol plant is expected to restart before the end of the month, spot supply is expected to increase storage. Demand: with the reduction of raw material methanol, the profits of most products in the terminal downstream market have been repaired, some industry devices are expected to restart next week, the olefin industry is expected to maintain high start-up, and the overall downstream demand is slowly increasing. However, at present, the replenishment atmosphere of traders and downstream is light, and the demand has not been significantly reduced for the time being. In the later stage, we need to pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and load changes. At present, the cost support is still there, and both supply and demand are expected to increase, but the demand volume is temporarily limited, the downstream rigid demand procurement under the high inventory level, the cautious wait-and-see mentality of the operators in the field is obvious, and the short-term methanol market price or interval fluctuation is expected. In the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.