Methanol: Ports continue to de-warehouse trend, futures market fluctuated at low levels

On October 11th, the methanol market price index was 2289.43, down 5.1% from yesterday, down 0.22% from the previous month.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 10:

China CFR 278-284 US dollars / ton, down 5 US dollars / ton

European FOB 269-270euros / ton, up 10 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $356-357 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2240-2280 (- 10), Northern Route: & nbsp;2100-2130 (0), Lunan: 2450 (0), Henan: 2340-2350 (0), Shanxi: 2200-2310 (30), Port: & nbsp;2460-2465 (- 15)

Freight:

North Route-Northern Shandong 210-280 (10thumb 0), Southern Route-Northern Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-Northern Shandong 110-160 (10ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the methanol market is mixed, the spot price fluctuates by 5-70 yuan / ton, the futures market fluctuates, the supply side of the Chinese market fluctuates, the boost on the demand side is limited, and the downstream rigid demand replenishment is dominant, and the market transaction is OK. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas is stable and small. The price on the north line is 2100-2130 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. Guanzhong quotation is 2240-2280 yuan / ton, and the lower end is reduced by 10 yuan / ton. At present, the inventory pressure in the field is not great, the previous orders are carried out steadily, and some enterprises sell at a high price. The auction transaction is OK, and the follow-up attention will be paid to the operation of the plant in the field. Consumer market prices rise and fall mixed, southern Shandong 2450 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2330 yuan / ton, low-end stability, the current market workers' mentality is general, rigid demand procurement. Prices rise and fall in North China, of which Shanxi quotes 2200-2310 yuan / ton, low-end increases 30 yuan / ton, Hebei quotes 2350-2400 yuan / ton, low-end down 30 yuan / ton, the current market atmosphere is light, downstream rigid demand replenishment. Prices in southwest China remain stable, of which Yungui quoted 2400-2500 yuan / ton, Sichuan and Chongqing quoted 2350-2460 yuan / ton, low-end stable, the current market negotiations are mediocre, terminal demand is weak, some prices have no market. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: today, methanol futures shock consolidation. Spot rigid demand procurement. Forward arbitrage delivery, cautious offer, the idea of replacement continues, the basis is strong. The overall transaction throughout the day is mediocre. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2455-2470, base difference 01: 15 prime price 20: 10 transaction: 2460-2475, base difference 01: 30 pound 35: 10 transaction: 2475-2500, base difference 01: 40 pound 45: 11 transaction: 2485-2510, base difference 01: 50 pound 60.

In the future, it is predicted that the coal price is stable in the near future, and the cost support is temporarily stable. At present, the supply side of the Chinese market fluctuates frequently, and some devices in the market in the main producing areas are stopped for maintenance. Methanol plants such as Rongxin Phase I, Inner Mongolia Guhe Baitai, Ningxia Qinghua and other methanol plants have been stopped one after another, some production enterprises have no inventory pressure for the time being, enterprises sell more at a higher price, and some transactions are OK, while the early parking devices may be restored in the near future. To a certain extent, it affects the good supply brought about by plant maintenance, coupled with the recent sharp drop in futures market, the mentality of the operators in the market is affected, the performance of the Chinese market atmosphere is poor, and from the point of view of demand, the demand in the downstream market increases slowly. some of the devices in the field are expected to be stored and started up, but the overall demand is not as expected. At present, the inventory of raw materials in some factories downstream is on the high side, and the overall rigid demand is mainly maintained. In the later stage, we also need to pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and the change of load. At present, the support on the cost side is temporarily stable, the demand side has no obvious volume for the time being, the supply side has fluctuated recently, the mentality of the operators in the market is different, and the mood of cautious wait-and-see is strong, and it is expected that the short-term methanol market price may be weak. In the later stage, we need to pay close attention to the macro policy and the prices of crude oil and coal.