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Caustic soda: Futures increased positions downward, short positions continued to suppress the market, and spot prices stabilized slightly

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October 11, 2023, 4:12 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 11 SH2405 contract opening price: 2716, highest price: 2743, lowest price: 2657, spread: 86, position: 61771, increase: 3216, settlement price: 2700, yesterday settlement: 2694, down: 6, closing price: 2704, daily trading volume: 304232 hands, precipitated capital: 1.203 billion, capital inflow: 55.87 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October tenth

October eleventh

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-1024

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

970-1050

970-1050

0/0

-

Hebei

1020-1050

1020-1050

0/0

Ex-factory price

South China

1100-1350

1100-1350

0/0

Can price

Shandong

930-1030

930-1030

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1150-1180

1150-1180

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

890-1080

890-1080

0/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

3300-3400

3300-3400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

1020-1050

1020-1050

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1590-1750

1590-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1710-1740

1710-1740

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1580-1700

1580-1670

0/-30

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3650-3700

3650-3700

0/0

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3550-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1500-1640

1500-1640

0/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Spot analysis of caustic soda:       Today, the overall fluctuation of China's caustic soda market is not obvious, prices in some areas have been slightly adjusted, the market mentality in most areas is cautious, the supply in the market is relatively adequate, downstream demand performance is general, rigid demand procurement is dominant, operators are more wait-and-see market-oriented, price adjustment mentality is more cautious. Today, the liquid alkali market as a whole has moved steadily and slightly, and the wait-and-see mood in various regions has increased. The price center of market transactions in individual regions has moved downwards. From the point of view of price adjustment in various regions, 50% of ionic membrane alkali has individually dropped by 30 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali have remained stable, and the price range has not been significantly adjusted. The enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream of individual areas is poor, the situation of enterprise shipments has weakened, and the price center of gravity of transactions in the high concentration alkali market has declined; there is little change in the supply and demand side of the market in other areas, and most of the operators wait and see the market, and the price has not fluctuated obviously. Individual manufacturers of upstream production enterprises adjust their ex-factory quotations, and prices go up and down in different directions, mainly in the northwest region. Today, the transaction in the tablet alkali market is more flexible, and the pre-sale situation of manufacturers is normal. This week, most of the new order prices have not been significantly adjusted, and the price adjustment mentality is more cautious. The market transaction prices in most regions have not been significantly adjusted, the center of gravity of market transactions in some areas has shifted downward, the situation of enterprise shipments is relatively general, the situation of receiving goods downstream is weak, and the wait-and-see mood of operators is heavier.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis:   SH2405 contract continues to run weakly. Night trading opened slightly higher, followed by a wide range of fluctuations after a sharp dive; early opening prices rose slightly to the intraday high of 2743 and began to fall back, and rebounded after falling to a low in the afternoon. Today's turnover: 19.2% more, 20.6% empty; 20.8% more than flat 20.3%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 3062.7, down 0.53, or 0.017%, while China's caustic soda index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: the SH2405 contract continues to be weak. In terms of transaction, the empty opening of 20.6% is compared with the opening of 19.2% more to suppress the disk, and the KD line and MACD line at the daily level at the technical level still show a dead-forked trend. On the whole, the main contract of caustic soda is short-term or still weak. Spot aspect: at present, there are certain differences in the market mentality in various regions, and in terms of market fundamentals, the level of supply and demand does not change much at present, the overall performance of market supply is relatively sufficient, and most of the downstream demand maintains the rhythm of rigid demand procurement to replenish goods; at present, there is no obvious change in cost, and the cost end support is relatively stable. In addition, in mid-October and late October, caustic soda plants in some areas will have maintenance plans, and the supply side may show a trend of regional reduction, which will be beneficial to the market. In the later stage, we should pay attention to the supply situation of the market after the equipment maintenance is implemented.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October tenth

October eleventh

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-100

100-150

50/50

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

150-200

150-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index rose 2.22%, or 0.62%, to 360.56 on October 11. China's liquid chlorine index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: