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Caustic soda: The futures price trend has been negative for six consecutive years, the short trend continues and the technology shows a dead fork, and the spot price is mixed

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October 10, 2023, 5:18 PM


Caustic soda futures analysis:    October 10 SH2405 contract opening price: 2783, the highest price: 2783, the lowest price: 2626, the spread: 157, the position: 58555, the increase: 11343, the settlement price: 2694, yesterday's settlement: 2784, down: 90, the closing price: 2720, the daily trading volume: 344386 hands, the precipitation capital: 1.147 billion, the capital inflow: 202 million.

 

Market price of caustic soda:

Summary of market price of caustic soda (unit: yuan / ton)

Specifications

Market

October ninth

October tenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

32% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1170-1400

1170-1400

0/0

Ex-factory price

Northwest

912-1024

912-1024

0/0

Ex-factory price

North China

970-1050

970-1050

0/0

-

Hebei

1020-1030

1020-1050

0/20

Ex-factory price

South China

1100-1350

1100-1350

0/0

Can price

Shandong

930-1030

930-1030

0/0

Current exchange rate

Zhejiang

1150-1180

1150-1180

0/0

-

Jiangsu Province

930-1080

890-1080

-40/0

Delivery price

Tianjin

3300-3400

3300-3400

0/0

A discount of 100%

Anhui Province

1020-1050

1020-1050

0/0

Ex-factory price

Henan

3250-3550

3250-3550

0/0

A discount of 100%

50% ionic membrane alkali

North China

1590-1750

1590-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

Hebei

1710-1740

1710-1740

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

1580-1700

1580-1700

0/0

Current exchange rate

Tianjin

3550-3650

3650-3700

100/50

A discount of 100%

Southwest

3400-3500

3400-3500

0/0

A discount of 100%

99% tablet alkali

Northwest

3200-3450

3200-3450

0/0

Ex-factory price

Shandong

3550-3650

3550-3650

0/0

Ex-factory price

45% ionic membrane alkali

Northeast China

1680-1750

1680-1750

0/0

Ex-factory price

49% ionic membrane alkali

Jiangsu Province

1520-1640

1500-1640

-20/0

Ex-factory price

30% ionic membrane alkali

Southwest

970-1030

970-1030

0/0

-

48% ionic membrane alkali

Henan

3350-3850

3350-3850

0/0

A discount of 100%

 

Caustic soda spot analysis:       today China's caustic soda market regional adjustment, local price adjustment mentality is different, prices rise and fall mutually, the market performance in some areas is stable, price adjustment is more cautious. Today, the market prices in some areas of liquid alkali have been adjusted, the prices rise and fall each other, and there is a certain difference among the regions in the market transaction atmosphere. from the point of view of regional market price adjustment, 32% ionic membrane alkali has increased 20 yuan / ton in some areas. individual dropped 40 yuan / ton, 50% ionic membrane alkali increased 50-100 yuan / ton, 30% ionic membrane alkali fell 30 yuan / ton, 49% ionic membrane alkali fell 20 yuan / ton. The prices of other concentrations of alkali remained stable, and the price range was not significantly adjusted. After the restoration of the early maintenance equipment in some areas of East China, the local supply increased, but the enthusiasm of receiving goods downstream was not good, the shipping situation of enterprises was not ideal, and the price center of market transaction mainly shifted downwardly. the local supply in some areas is relatively tight, and the market transaction price range is mainly rising. There is little change in the supply and demand side of the market in other regions, and most of the operators wait and see the market, and the price does not fluctuate obviously. Individual manufacturers of upstream production enterprises adjust their ex-factory quotations, and prices go up and down in different directions. Today, the transaction in the tablet alkali market is relatively flexible, the transaction prices in most areas have not been significantly adjusted, the regional markets are mainly sorted out, the shipments of enterprises are relatively general, the downstream receiving situation is weak, and the wait-and-see mood of operators is heavier. Factory presale is normal, and most manufacturers will adjust the price of this week's new order tomorrow.

 

Caustic soda futures analysis: & the nbsp; SH2405 contract showed a U-shaped trend of falling first and then rising throughout the day. The opening price of night trading, that is, the highest price of the day, opened all the way down; in early trading, it continued its decline in night trading, falling to today's lowest point of 2626, although it rebounded, but it was not obvious, and the rebound was more obvious in the afternoon. Today's turnover: 18.9% more, 21.3% empty; 21.1% more than 19.6%.

 

Caustic soda index analysis: according to Tuduoduo data, China's caustic soda index was 3063.23, up 21.05%, or 0.692%, and China's caustic soda index rose.

 

 

Caustic soda late forecast:     futures: SH2405 contract first fell and then rose, the intraday position increase is more obvious, today's futures price reappears a new low, the market once fell 157points, from a technical point of view, MACD shows a dead cross, from the trading volume point of view, short positions are still on the high side, short-term market may still have downward pressure. From the point of view of the spot market, there are regional differences in supply at present. The equipment planned to be overhauled in October has been gradually implemented, and the supply has been reduced regionally, which may support the local market to a certain extent, but in the early stage, some parts of East China were affected by the Asian Games. The load of some devices is on the low side. At present, with the recovery of the equipment, the supply has increased, but the downstream demand is relatively poor, and the market is under pressure. The short-term supply side still shows differential operation. The overall performance of the demand downstream of the demand side is general, there is no large number of purchases, and there is only rigid demand in the face of the market. It is expected that the short-term caustic soda market or differential operation, with the implementation of the maintenance equipment, the later price may keep an upward trend.

 

Market price of liquid chlorine:

Summary of market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Area

October ninth

October tenth

Rise and fall

Remarks

Northeast China

200-400

200-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

Shandong province

200-600

200-400

0/-200

Tank car quotation

Zhejiang Province

500-600

500-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

East China region

50-200

50-100

0/-100

Tank car quotation

Southwest China

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Central China

200-300

200-300

0/0

Tank car quotation

Inner Mongolia

400-600

400-600

0/0

Tank car quotation

Anhui province

150-200

150-200

0/0

Tank car quotation

Hebei Province

300-400

300-400

0/0

Tank car quotation

 

Liquid chlorine index analysis:    according to Tuduoduo data, China's liquid chlorine spot index was 358.33, down 8.33, or 2.27%, on October 10. China's liquid chlorine index fell.

 

 

Caustic soda holding the list: