Methanol: Futures fell sharply and Chinese markets weakened simultaneously

On October 10th, the methanol market price index was 2294.53, down 13.63 from yesterday, or 0.59% lower than yesterday.

Outer disk dynamics:

Methanol closed on October 9:

China CFR 283-290 USD / ton, Ping

European FOB 269-270 euros / ton, up 2 euros / ton

Us FOB 85-90 cents per gallon, flat

CFR in Southeast Asia is US $356-357 per ton, flat.

Summary of today's prices:

Guanzhong: 2250-2280 (- 10), Northern Route: & nbsp;2100-2130 (0), Lunan: 2450 (20), Henan: 2340-2350 (- 20), Shanxi: 2170-2320 (- 90), Port: & nbsp;2475-2515 (30)

Freight:

North Route-North Shandong 200-280 (0ax 0), South Line-North Shandong 240-320 (0ax 0), Shanxi-North Shandong 100-160 (0ax 0), Guanzhong-Southwest Shandong 160-220 (0max 0)

Spot market: today, the volatility of the methanol market weakens, the futures market falls sharply, the spot quotation goes down with the market, the supply side of the Chinese market fluctuates, the demand side has no obvious volume for the time being, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is general, and the auction in some areas is unsuccessful. Specifically, the market price in the main producing areas has been partially reduced, with the northern line quoted at 2100-2130 yuan / ton, the low-end stable, Guanzhong quoted at 2250-2280 yuan / ton, and the low-end down by 10 yuan / ton. at present, the maintenance and driving in the field are expected, and the inventory pressure is not great. Some enterprises ship goods at a high price, and the transaction is mainly low-end, and the follow-up attention is paid to the operation of the equipment in the field. Consumer market prices rise and fall mixed, southern Shandong 2450 yuan / ton, low-end up 20 yuan / ton, northern Shandong 2330-2340 yuan / ton, low-end down 30 yuan / ton, the current trading atmosphere is general, the mentality of operators is different. Today's market bidding price is around 2330 yuan / ton, including 2330 yuan / ton for Lihuayi methanol and 2330 yuan / ton for Shenchi chemical industry. Prices in North China have been reduced, including 2170-2320 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 90 yuan / ton in the low end, and 2380-2430 yuan / ton in Hebei, which is stable at the low end. at present, the market atmosphere is light, downstream rigid demand replenishment, on-site auction more failed auction. Prices in southwest China have been partially reduced, of which Yungui quotation is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, low-end price is reduced by 40 yuan / ton, Sichuan-Chongqing quotation is 2350-2460 yuan / ton, and the low end is stable. At present, the negotiations in the market are insipid, downstream replenishment on demand, and operators wait and see carefully. Quotations in other regions of China have also been adjusted to varying degrees.

Port market: methanol futures are lower today. Spot rigid demand negotiations, long-term paper goods low inquiry positive, arbitrage and exchange of goods mainly, the basis is strong. The overall transaction is active. Taicang main port transaction price: spot transaction: 2440-2475, base difference 01x2Universe 15 position 10: 2450-2485, base spread 01x20 pound 27x 10x: 2460-2500, base difference 01x30max 40x 11x: 2470-2510, basis 01x45x52.

Future forecast: from the supply point of view: recently, there are a number of equipment parking maintenance, Rongxin Phase I, Inner Mongolia Guohe Baitai, Yanzhou Mining Guojiao and other methanol plants have stopped one after another, local supply has been reduced, the price is slightly stronger, while Inner Mongolia Shilin plans to restart and produce products in the near future, some early parking devices are expected to resume in mid-late October, and the supply side fluctuates frequently in the near future, and we need to pay attention to the operation of the plant in the later stage. From the demand point of view: the start-up performance of the products in the terminal downstream market is different, and some devices in the field are expected to be stored and started. At present, the raw material inventory of some enterprises and factories in the lower reaches is on the high side, the overall replenishment enthusiasm is general, and there is no obvious volume on the short-term demand side for the time being. in the later stage, we should also pay attention to the start-up of downstream factories and load changes. At present, the macro performance is OK, the crude oil goes up after the holiday, but the futures market plunges downwards, coupled with the lower-than-expected recovery of downstream demand, the market trading atmosphere is light, and the mindset of operators in the market is more wait-and-see, it is expected that the short-term methanol market price or weak consolidation, in the later stage, we also need to pay close attention to the macro policy as well as crude oil and coal prices.