Daily Review of Urea: The market is temporarily in a game between manufacturers and prices continue to decline (October 10)

China Urea Price Index:

According to Feiduo data, the urea small pellet price index on October 10 was 2,458.32, down 28.95 from yesterday, down 1.16% month-on-month, and down 4.78% year-on-year.

Urea futures market:

Today, the opening price of the Urea UR2401 contract is 2135, the highest price is 2143, the lowest price is 2023, the settlement price is 2073, and the closing price is 2042. The closing price is down 103 compared with the settlement price of the previous trading day, down 4.80% month-on-month. The daily fluctuation range is 2023-2143, and the spread is 120; the 01 contract has increased its position by 3129 lots today, and so far, it has held 307140 lots.

Spot market analysis:

Today, China's urea market prices continue to decline. At present, most companies are under pressure on shipments and have lowered their factory quotations to make profits and attract orders, but the actual transaction volume is small.

Specifically, prices in Northeast China have been lowered to 2,460 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in North China fell to 2,270 - 2,500 yuan/ton. Prices in Northwest China fell to 2,410 - 2,420 yuan/ton. Prices in Southwest China are stable at 2,350 - 2,800 yuan/ton. Prices in East China fell to 2,350 - 2,420 yuan/ton. The price of small and medium-sized particles in Central China fell to 2,350 - 2,620 yuan/ton, and the price of large particles stabilized at 2,470 - 2,510 yuan/ton. Prices in South China fell to 2,500 - 2,600 yuan/ton.

Market outlook forecast:

In terms of supply, the pre-maintenance equipment is still in the process of continuous recovery, and Nissan is gradually increasing, and the market supply has reached a high level. In terms of enterprises, some enterprises still implement pre-holiday advance receipts, and new orders have increased sporadically, putting pressure on corporate shipments. On the demand side, the overall market demand is sluggish, and downstream trade mostly adopts a wait-and-see attitude and is cautious in entering the market to buy. In terms of cost, under the pressure of post-warehouse stores, the price of synthetic ammonia has been lowered. The coal market turned downward at a high level, and the price of anthracite lump coal fell slightly. Downstream melamine prices fell slightly, while compound fertilizer prices remained stable.

On the whole, the current market price is still in the process of continuous downward testing and is still in a game among manufacturers for a short time. Therefore, it is expected that the urea market price will still be dominated by a downward trend.